It is true that Trump has taken over the GOP and has the allegiance of millions of followers who would still crawl across hot coals to vote for him and an array of MAGA supporters in the House and across the country. But even as his control coalesces over the GOP, there is mounting evidence that Trump is drowning, grasping for air and clawing for a lifeline. Rescuers Beware! You risk being dragged down with SS Trump as it sinks.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE POLLS?!
Polls show Trump and Biden in a seemingly hot race in battleground states with Trump consistently up 2 to 4 points depending on the state. But polling has become more inaccurate these days. Even though pollsters call a combination of landlines and cell phones following a protocol that is supposed to capture the sentiment of a cross section of randomly chosen Americans, when cell phone users get a call from a research group or pollster, that call comes in as an: “unidentified caller” on the cell phone. Many busy Americans and more progressive younger Americans, who use cell phones and no longer have landlines, screen those callers out without ever answering. Turns out, people who DO answer tend to fall into the category of Americans who are older, less educated Americans. That demographic includes way more Trump supporters.
(David) Hill acknowledged that while surveyors try various ways of correcting for sampling errors, call screening – a shift in peoples’ behavior as they respond to the technology available to them – is a deep, looming problem for pollsters, including his own firm. “The incidence of people cooperating has dropped so low that polls are now ‘polls of the willing’,” he said. They’re not random samples. It’s the dirty little secret that the cooperation rate has collapsed.”
“This is a very sensitive subject,” said Hill, whose namesake firm was founded in 1988, according to its website. “I’m at the end of my career so I can be more candid.”
Some Americans are very picky about what calls they answer. Those who are not selective tend to have different traits than those who are, a situation that needs to be corrected by the polling institution, Hill said. People who tend to pick up any and all phone calls tend to be older, conservative, less wealthy and less educated, he said. So you’re not capturing opinions of younger, more affluent, progressive and educated voters if you only use the ones you gather from people who pick up their phones all the time, he said. (“Random Sampling” PBS)
FOLLOW THE MONEY
President Biden’s reelection campaign reported Wednesday that it has $71 million in cash on hand — more than double the $33.5 million that Trump’s campaign reported having. If you throw in the bank balances of affiliated groups supporting the candidates, Trump’s campaign liquidity rises to $42 million — but Biden’s soars to a stunning $155 million, an amazing amount for this point in the cycle.
If you also look at the difference in small dollar donations for the two campaigns, Trump’s v Biden’s, there is a distinct difference that reflects voter animation or antipathy.
In 2023, Trump’s reelection campaign raised 62.5% less money from small-dollar donors than it did in 2019, the year before the last presidential election.
Trump has been asking his supporters to help him out for the past 9 years with small dollar donations. These are not wealthy people. They are giving him less now in those small dollar donations than before. Maybe it’s donor fatigue. Or maybe they see the handwriting on the wall.
By way of contrast:
Biden’s campaign announced it raised $10 million in just the 24 hours following the president’s March 7 State of the Union address.
MANY WEALTHY DONORS ABANDON TRUMP
The drop in Trump’s small-dollar donations is magnified by a second problem: Many wealthy Republican donors have yet to commit to giving millions of dollars toward a pro-Trump political action committee, or to using their extensive networks to raise money for the campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beyond Trump-specific entities, some donors are also hesitant to fund the Republican National Committee, or a newly created joint fundraising committee that will raise money for the RNC, Trump’s campaign and dozens of state GOP parties, according to people briefed on the matter.
A newly established joint fundraising committee, the Trump 47 Committee, plans to split proceeds between the RNC, Trump’s campaign, state parties and — crucially — Save America, the Trump-affiliated leadership PAC that spent $24 million on the former president’s legal bills in the latter half of 2023. (CNBC)
As Trump siphons off money to pay for his legal defense, down ballot races for GOP hopefuls get less financial support. This is how the GOP could sink itself along with the SS Trump.
TRUMP DAMAGES THE GOP
Because the GOP is so closely hobbled to Trump, Trump’s failures in court and massive expenses resulting from Trump’s courtroom losses will be connected to the Republican Party’s ability to get its message out in down ballot races.
The civil lawsuits that were pending are now yielding verdicts, and the “Stormy Daniels” criminal case in New York looks like it will be tried to completion (very likely a conviction because of the strong evidence and with the potential for prison time) before the 2024 election despite Trump’s best efforts to delay it. Trump is already scrambling to pay his lawyers and pay the high bond on his defamation case (E. Jean Carroll) that he lost and the civil fraud case (New York case before Judge Engoron) that he also lost.
Trump’s legal money squeeze is not limited to just his lawyers’ bills. Over the past three months, the former president has been found liable for fraud and defamation in federal and state civil court cases. The total combined judgments ordered against Trump add up to more than $500 million.
On Monday, Trump’s attorneys revealed the former president has been unable to secure a $454 million bond he needs to prevent the largest judgment against him from coming due later this month. (CNBC)
One positive note for Trump is that he was able to merge his Truth Social with another social media company which could allow him to borrow against his stake in the newly formed company.
Having closed the merger of his social media company, Mr. Trump could find ways to raise cash against the value of his stake in the company, estimated at more than $3 billion.
But this will not happen immediately. And much will depend on whether the newly formed company is successful. It has to appeal to Trump’s supporters and if Trump’s image as a strongman fades, his supporters could decide he is not the man they imagined him to be.
TRUMP’S IMAGE AS A LOSER
One of the reasons Trump won in 2016 was that he was seen by voters as a rising star, a populist man of the people, a no holds barred entertainer and successful businessman who was outside of DC politics. In short, he was a winner. But Trump is now looking more and more like a loser. Not only is he a loser, he is an aggrieved and angry loser. His message is one of retribution, America as a failed nation, and he promises “bloodbaths”. He threatens that carnage unless he wins. In short, Trump is a poor loser. This is not an inspirational message.
THE GOP IS TRUMP’S LAP DOG
The GOP is listening to and appeasing its most extreme members. It supports a ban on abortion, IVF, and contraception. Trump is taking credit for killing Roe v Wade. This is shocking, infuriating and offensive to suburban women voters and even to many Hispanic men who don’t want government to tell their wives and daughters what they can do with their bodies. These are voters the Republicans need to have on board to succeed in 2024.
Speaker Mike Johnson and the GOP have listened to Trump and obeyed his order to kill the border bill that had almost everything the conservatives asked for. They did it to make sure Biden didn’t have a win on the border issue even though Biden urged passage of the border bill and asked for the executive authority to shut down the border when it was overrun. That action by Republicans is upsetting and offensive to Americans who want the border secure from encroachment. The GOP has shown itself to be a cynical and hypocritical group of MAGA sycophants. Not an inspirational political party.
TRUMP WANTS YOU TO THINK HE’S DOING GREAT
Trump will never admit that he is sinking. He will also never admit any failure on his part. His troubles are always the fault of everyone else. But people who know better are jumping ship and declaring their independence from him.
Here is the list of prominent conservative Republican ex-Trump officials who refuse to endorse his 2024 presidential run so far:
Mike Pence (Former VP), Bill Barr (Former AG), John Bolton (Former National Security Advisor), Mark Esper (Former Defense Secretary), James Mattis (Former Defense Secretary), Cassidy Hutchinson (Former Aide), John Kelly (Former Chief of Staff), Stephanie Grisham (Former Press Secretary), Sarah Matthews (Former Deputy Press Secty), Mark Milley (Former Joint Chief Chrmn), Anthony Scaramucci (Former Comm Director), Alyssa Farah Griffin (Former Strategic Comm Director)
