Trump is deeply unpopular with the American people, but he still controls the MAGAs who continue to support Trump and will punish Republicans running for re-election if they don’t obey Trump.
The Supreme Court just gave southern states the power to redistrict away almost every Black (Democratic) representative in Congress by allowing partisan redistricting without factoring in the racial composition of a district. Red states in the south are now racing to redistrict away Black representatives not only nationally but within the state as well. This is creating a huge backlash against Trump, the MAGA Republicans, and the Supreme Court.
The Iran War is decimating the US economy and creating a cost-of-living crisis in our country. Trump is claiming the economy is not that bad. Trump is denying the economic reality facing millions of Americans whose experience tells them the truth.
What does all of this mean for the midterms?
OUR WEIRD KING
Trump is acting more and more bizarre as he loses in the polls and fails to make America Great Again for average Americans including the people who voted for him. One night recently he posted 160 times on social media, creating AI slop images through the night to help himself feel better.
Donald Trump posted more than 160 times on Truth Social between 7 p.m. and midnight, marking one of his most prolific late-night posting sessions TIME+1.
This “late-night blitz” began around 7 p.m. ET and lasted for about five hours, during which he shared a mix of original content, reposts, and advertisements. Posts included:
- Promotion of far-right conspiracy theories (e.g., Alex Jones interview clips, claims about Michelle Obama using the autopen) TIME+1
- Political attacks on figures like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Mark Kelly People
- Immigration-related commentary targeting Somali immigrants and other groups TIME+1
- Reposts of AI-generated or viral content, including a Home Alone 2 cameo and an AI video of Elon Musk discussing Minnesota and Somali migrants People
- Praise for Melania Trump and MAGA messaging People
The spree ended just before midnight, but Trump resumed posting in the early morning hours, continuing his high-volume activity.
Trump naps during daytime events in the Oval Office and at night he posts angry images that expose a juvenile internal fantasy life – how he wishes the world were instead of accepting and relating to the world as it really is. This was always a problem for Trump as I have written about in earlier Markin Reports. Trump was already out of touch with reality. He is getting worse.
Trump has been filmed getting off of his plane and unable to walk in a straight line. This is all over social media. This can be a sign of worsening dementia.
A majority of Americans are onto Trump at this point. They see him falling asleep in Oval Office meetings and posting his fever dreams late into the night.
Trump’s approval is now at 30%. A new CNN poll found that 70% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy — a benchmark that never crossed 50% in his first term, even during the pandemic.
- 77% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, say Trump’s policies have driven up the cost of living in their own community.
Nonetheless, his every whim gets a green light from a Republican party that refuses to challenge this man or call out his corrupt activities.
THE WAR IN IRAN WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR MAGAS TO WIN
The war in Iran is driving inflation up in our country.
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8 percent in April from a year earlier, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday, up from a 2.4 percent annual increase before the conflict started in February and a 3.3 percent increase in March.
The increase was driven largely by energy prices, up 3.8 percent since the previous month.
The war in Iran is not ending quickly as Trump said it would. Iranians currently have the upper hand. Trump does NOT. Iran is getting a big kick out of torturing Trump, humiliating him by posting memes and animations featuring Trump as a dufuss- a silly incompetent man who is prone to making stupid mistakes. Iran is also sending Trump peace proposals that are more like demands: To end the conflict they demand continued power over the Strait of Hormuz and a return of their financial assets, eventual nuclear development after a few years’ delay. They have to know these demands are non-starters.
Our own government has made an assessment and has determined that the Iranians can hold out for another 3-4 months. We have also learned that they still have about 70% of their weaponry intact. Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz with relatively cheap drones and mines. Ships are not venturing into the Strait because these ships and their insurers are concerned about drone attacks and mines in the water that could wreck the ship and everything in it. Insurance becomes too high to be worth the cost/ benefit.
The newest threat Iranians are making (as reported by Meidas Touch) is a threat to cut cables under water in the Strait in order to disrupt communications across the Middle East. They will use that threat as leverage to increase the pressure on Trump. They realize that such a threat is just as valuable as a nuclear bomb to get the Trump administration to capitulate to their demands. Trump has already done many (probably corrupt) deals with the Saudis and other countries in the Middle East. These countries will exert major pressure on Trump to back down when it comes to Iran because it is their countries that will suffer the consequences if Iran cuts these under water cables.
Iran appears to be holding these Middle Eastern countries hostage and they in turn are holding Trump hostage.
A QUAGMIRE
Since Trump cannot bear to be a loser, this war will not end anytime soon. Trump has only two options. He can walk away and be called a loser even if he SAYS he is a winner (the facts will make it clear he is the loser) or he can up the ante by going in with boots on the ground to control the Strait and try to get regime change. If desperate. he might threaten in all caps to nuke Iran or maybe actually do that with some kind of nuclear device and then threaten to do more. But, because of his deals with Middle Eastern countries, Trump will be between a rock and a hard place all of his own making: If he hurts Iran, Iran hurts his buddies in the Middle East. The Iran war is a quagmire in many ways.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO U.S.
What this means for Americans is that gas prices are likely to go higher -straining households, causing farmers to go bankrupt, and boosting inflation. Trump will sacrifice the American people before he would damage his own interests. That means we are in for more chaos and economic pain in this country. Voters will blame Trump and the complicit Republican Party for this chaos.
AFFECT ON THE MIDTERMS
How will this affect the midterm elections? MAGAs who are still all in on Trump (although the number of true MAGAs is shrinking and those who are left are the most loyal cult members of all) will show up for primaries- probably electing the most extreme candidates to run against Democrats in the general election. This will set up these right-wing extremists to lose in the general election as Americans (Dems and Independents and even some Republicans) rise up in anger to reject this administration and the sycophants who are in lockstep with mad king Trump.
This situation also sets up the MAGA party to do everything it can to cheat to stay in power because that’s their last best shot at “winning” now. That includes the re-districting spree they are on to wipe out as much Black (Democratic) representation in southern states as possible.
RACIST SUPREME COURT THROWS MAGAS A LIFELINE
Aided and abetted by 6 racist Supreme Court Christian Nationalist justices, MAGAs are wiping out Black (Democratic) representatives from the already limited districts they represented in southern states like TN, Alabama, Georgia, Florida and maybe South Carolina. This re-districting ploy is estimated to help Republicans gain about 12 to 15 seats. What is happening is Jim Crow 2.0. It will not go over well. It will infuriate Blacks in southern states and create political backlash with a group of voters that actually helped Trump win in 2024.
This overt racism will infuriate not only Black people but many white, Asian and Hispanic Americans as well. Many are Americans live in multicultural families these days. Their kids have intermarried especially in cities and suburbs with interracial workplaces filled with university graduates. It will create more negative partisanship in the country. More Americans (especially independent voters who decide elections) will go to the polls in November to vote for Democrats in the midterm general election to express their anger at these white Nationalists who are trying to drag our country back in time to the post-Civil War era.
Cook Political’s assessment is that if the Dems maintain the +6 advantage they currently have, they will still take back the House, but much more narrowly.
THE MOMENT HAS COME TO SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY
Because of all of these factors coming to a head, there is a huge looming threat to our democracy. Partisan redistricting is poised to dig in deeper all across the country setting every state up to be either solidly Republican or Democratic states, wiping out bipartisan representation across the board. This portends an ever more divided and dug in America with red states fully partisan and possibly MAGAfied to the hilt. Blue states would still function as democracies, but red states would not. And, far worse, this divide, however it pans out after the midterms are over, could be set in stone for decades to come. The southern states becoming MAGA strongholds and the blue states trying to fortify and protect themselves against a MAGAfied Congress and president that uses the DOJ, the Fed, and the rest of the executive branch for revenge and retribution for crossing him.
THERE IS A WAY OUT:
If Democrats are able to flip as many state legislatures as possible red to blue THIS midterm, balancing out the power in state houses, and getting a trifecta – control over both state houses and the governorships in as many battleground states as possible, they might be able to force this fight to a draw.
Currently, Republicans control more state houses, but Democrats have a chance to flip many battleground state houses given the level of outrage Trump has created.
If there is level playing field between red and blue states, it could set up the chance for a detente or a stand down, where all of the states agree that divisiveness is ruining our country and decide to mutually end gerrymandering for once and for all. National legislation could be passed to install independent commissions to determine standard, fair voting districts in every state.
WE ARE NOT THERE YET.
THE MAGA GAME PLAN IS ABOUT POWER FOREVER- A FIGHT TO THE FINISH
Republicans who refuse to stop Trump are to blame for allowing this corrupt, immoral, vengeful man to continue on as our all-powerful, unchecked president. But why are these Republicans silent?
Let’s be clear: They understand he is their ticket to ride–their ticket to be on what they see as the “winning” side of the end this country’s democracy and the installation of a dictatorship, where MAGAs could maintain power indefinitely and function as a ruling class in America. Republicans in congress are making this gamble. Trump is their Trojan Horse. He’s a mess but they are stuck with him. The goal is to reject a multicultural democracy and install Christian Nationalism just as Project 2025 projected. It is part of a plan they have been working on since Obama became president.
I imagine they also think if the Democrats do win back power, the wimpy Dems will not punish them for having laid low to help Trump. If they disobey or displease Trump, on the other hand, they could lose their jobs by being primaried. They would also lose their personal shot at staying in power indefinitely themselves. And since corruption is rampant with Trump as Grifter-in-Chief, they could get rich and have all the power. Pretty sweet deal, right? The victors write the history books. They could be the victors.
I want to be crystal clear here. IF THE MAGAS WIN ENOUGH STATE HOUSE POWER AND CONGRESSIONAL POWER THIS WILL BE THE END OF OUR DEMOCRACY.
The next election will be the last chance to change the composition of state legislatures before the southern state legislatures lock in MAGA control for the foreseeable future. They will do it using the re-gerrymandering tool the Supreme Court just gave them with Callais.
IN OTHER WORDS, THIS NEXT ELECTION IS FOR ALL THE MARBLES WHEN IT COMES TO KEEPING OUR DEMOCRACY AND ENDING THE CORRUPTION OF THIS MOB BOSS ADMINISTRATION.
If there are more Republican-led state legislatures than Democratic-led state legislatures when the dust settles after these midterm elections, it will be more likely our country will be stuck with the kleptocracy we currently have- a dictatorship run by incompetents who are pillaging the country for themselves. If the playing field is leveled, we have a good shot at reinventing our democracy.
MAGAS WILL CHEAT IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE
Here are just a few examples of the dirty tricks they are ALREADY up to: changing the location of polling places where Democrats vote but not telling these voters their polling place has been changed so they go to the wrong location; planning to have armed MAGA supporters or military at polling places to scare voters away; eliminating drop boxes; messing with the postal service so that mailed ballots do not get counted in time; spreading disinformation in social media using TikTok, Instagram and other platforms, relying on Mike Johnson to claim that close elections in key districts were fraudulent so under the constitution he must decide who to seat in the next congress (spoiler alert- he will decide to seat only Republicans.)
STOP THE REAL STEAL
If you want to learn how to change course check these groups out:
Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket
Norm Eisen’s Democracy Defenders Action
(Taking the Rs to court on all the dirty tricks they’re trying to get away with.)
The States Project
DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee)
(Working very effectively to flip state legislatures red to blue.)
Democratic governors, AGs and Secretaries of State are also crucial as a bulwark for every state trying to maintain democracy.
As long as Trump continues to be a terrible president and engage in massive corruption the Senate will be in play.
If we as Americans want a country where we have the rights of free speech, freedom to take care of our own bodies, the right to due process and fair treatment under the law, and can vote to elect the people we want to be in control of our tax dollars, we will need to rise up and vote out the MAGA party across the board in MASSIVE numbers this November.
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