TRUMP IS DOWN IN THE POLLS AND DRAGGING THE REPUBLICANS DOWN WITH HIM
Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats’ chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory.
Silver’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats’ chances as “Lean D” as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved. The forecast has now moved into the “Likely D” category, marking a further shift in the model’s outlook.
A majority of likely voters now see the Democratic Party as the party of the working class — a shift from 2022, when voters gave the Republican Party the edge. Voters also see Democrats as more likely to keep their promises than Republicans, a striking reversal from two years ago, when Republicans held an advantage on that question.
And majorities across nearly every demographic group now view Democrats as more understanding and able to fix the problems of average Americans.
Trump is underwater on all the major issues Americans care about. In the latest NYT Siena poll Democrats get the approval of likely voters as follows: +20 on health care, +15 on cost of living, +14 on cost of gas, +10 on handling foreign wars, +8 on the economy, +4 on handling immigration. And the issue of Republican corruption is gaining traction with voters.
Trump’s net approval in Reuters/Ipsos is −35, the worst ever, and he’s 54 points underwater with independents. NBC (−32), ABC (−33), Ipsos (−35) and Pew (−38) all show the worst October pre-midterm presidential numbers since 1938.
Trump’s response to this news was to repost a comment from a MAGA supporter who claimed Trump was “hitting his stride.”
Really? What fantasy world do these people live in?
As we get closer to this midterm election, now only 2 weeks away, Trump is falling off a cliff when it comes to his approval ratings across the board. And he is not just “not liked”. He is despised. The negative energy he generates creates such powerful backlash that early voting numbers reveal greater turn out by the very people Trump is trying to keep from voting: Youth and Black voters are turning out in larger numbers in deep red Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas so far. In 19 out of 19 states with enough early votes cast to see the trends, the Democrats are getting a larger share of the vote than in 2024. There is, for example, a 6-point share increase in Hispanic vote in Texas so far, which is very high turnout especially for a midterm election. The most recent Harvard Youth Poll shows that 2 in 3 US adults under the age of 30 who plan to vote in the midterms say their main motivation is opposition to Trump and his policies. 77% of respondents disapprove of the way Trump is handling the economy including about half of young Republicans.
But this does not yet predict a blue tsunami. People have to vote to send this message to Trump. And this administration is trying to prevent voters they don’t think are on their side from having their votes counted.
WHAT WE ARE IN FOR THIS MIDTERM WITH TRUMP CHEATING TO STAY IN POWER
We know Trump by now. As he loses his power, he gets more and more frustrated, angry and willing to pull out all the stops on his effort to stay in power despite the will of We the People being against him. In some ways, this guy is like a juvenile delinquent. If you tell him “No” he will defy you even more just to prove he can do it.
I am not the only one predicting that he will resort to more violent ways to cheat his way into staying in power as his anger and frustration increase. He is very likely to encourage violence at the polling places where he wants to suppress the vote, encourage state and local Republicans to refuse to certify the election result if a Democrat wins in a tight race in a red district or state, make sure the postal service is too slow (by cutting staff, making sure the remaining postal workers are overwhelmed by the mailed in ballots so they arrive too late to be counted), and tell or maybe even order Mike Johnson to replace the nonpartisan Clerk of the House with someone who is a MAGA loyalist before January 3rd when the old Congress is disbanded and the new Congress is called to order by the Clerk (the current Clerk is nonpartisan and would not be party to an effort to keep Democrats who win narrowly from being seated). I think all this and more is going to be attempted by Trump and MAGA Mike Johnson in order to keep control of the House as a Hail Mary effort to stay in power and avoid accountability.
We have already seen Trump and his allies trying one dirty trick after another from gerrymandering (which was green lit by the Supreme Court’s Callais decision), to purging voter rolls, to messing with the postal service, to demanding voter information and alleging non-citizens are trying to vote and should be purged when they are, in fact, valid citizens and much more. So far, these cases have resulted in hundreds and hundreds of lawsuits which Trump has failed to win in federal courts because our federal judges still believe in the rule of law and the constitution.
I am not including the Supreme Court here- this Court has been undermining our constitutional democracy even if they occasionally step on Trump’s worse impulses. Justice Kagan herself conceded this in a recent speech where she talked about the judicial legacy of this Court- the court is weakening our democracy. She cited decisions gutting the Voting Rights Act, decisions that knocked down campaign finance regulations, and the 2019 ruling that declared partisan gerrymandering a political question federal courts can’t touch. On the issue of gerrymandering, she blamed the Court’s 2019 ruling for the redistricting frenzy that followed.
There is real concern among legal experts about what the Supreme Court will do if there is a crucial determination that arises from the midterms and takes shape as a case or controversy that could help or hurt Trump stay in power. Will this Court make a fair determination or put their thumbs on the scale for Trump? If this does come to pass, it will become crucial for Americans to peacefully march in the streets in large numbers to try to influence the Supreme Court’s decision.
SO, WHO IS FIGHTING BACK AGAINST TRUMP’S CHEAT-TO-WIN EFFORTS?
As I have written before, groups like Democracy Defenders led by Norm Eisen, Democracy Docket, led by Marc Elias, Democratic secretaries of state, Democratic AGs, Democratic governors, many other 501 C 3 and C4 groups like Protect Democracy led by Ian Bassin, and many other pro-democracy groups have already been hard at work beating back the challenges from this administration in court and war gaming out what Trump and the MAGA Republicans are likely to do as Election Day nears.
In a new development: About ten current and former national security officials have been working with members of both parties in ten states to prepare for what Trump might do next to interfere in the midterms, the Washington Post reported Tuesday. Many of them came from the Pentagon. They’re planning for scenarios like Trump sending immigration agents or troops to polling places. [Scott Dworkin]
Other groups are involved in helping people to feel safe going to the polls. Some of them are Vote Vets, Common Cause in Florida, and Popular Democracy. There are many other grassroots organizations working with thousands of volunteers and neighbors who are reinstating the local organizations that were put together to protect immigrant neighbors from ICE. They plan to dress in bright yellow shirts, answer questions at the polls, escort people to their polling places, and do what they can to help citizens feel safe when they exercise their right to vote.
WHY I PERSONALLY CARE ABOUT THIS
If you have read my background on the home page of this blog I write you already know I am a former criminal prosecutor. I was an Asst US Atty in Chicago. What does not appear on my home page is that I helped to develop and investigate with FBI agents and then prosecute the most consequential vote fraud case in Chicago history. That case involved vote fraud (an estimated 100,000 fraudulent votes cast) carried out by Democrats in the city of Chicago in the 1980s. Precinct captains hired people to fill out ballot applications for drunks and people who were paid not to show up to vote in order to boost Democratic numbers in a governor’s race that the Republican won despite the fraud.
It doesn’t matter which party is engaged in vote fraud. The important thing is that vote fraud of any kind be exposed and stopped and then prosecuted. Cheating to win elections undermines our democracy and the rule of law which is the bedrock basis for every successful constitutional democracy.
Today the bad actors are Trump and the MAGA Republicans.
TRUMP WAS INSTALLED BY THE RICH GUYS FOR A REASON
Trump getting elected is like the story of Trojan Horse from The Odyssey. Did you see that movie or read the book? The Greeks and Trojans are at war. Troy is under siege. The Greeks pretend they are giving up and they give the Trojans a giant wooden horse as a peace offering. The Trojans drag the horse inside city gates. That night a bunch of Greek fighters who were hiding inside the horse let themselves out through a trap door and kill the guards at the gates letting the Greek army into the sleeping city.
They attack the city of Troy from within.
It was a clever trick.
We got tricked too.
Trump was supposed to be strong man populist hero who would help little guy, make America great again, and make everyone’s lives more economically stable and better. Trump said his presidency would be the start of a golden age: a great economy and no more wars. He just said that to get elected.
Instead of a golden age for working Americans, we have gotten what’s called a K-shaped economy. That’s an economy where the upper arm of the K represents the wealthy 1% segment of the country which is doing great. Their fortunes are going up. The stock market reflects that rise. But the lower arm of the K is not rising- and that’s everyone else in the United States.
In a K shaped economy, the rich get richer (about 1%) while everyone else slides downhill economically.
Many very wealthy people are rooting for Trump to retain power. They are also rooting for the end of our democracy with the goal of having limitless power for themselves because with Trump as president they know they can pay to play.
TRUMP’S CORRUPTION IS PAID FOR BY ALL AMERICANS
With Trump in power, there is massive corruption in our country now. It’s corruption on steroids. And We the People end up footing the bill for all this corruption.
Presidents are not supposed to take even small gifts from foreign governments –to avoid the appearance of influence let alone a Qatari jet worth millions of dollars. That jet was just the beginning.
Trump also uses our taxpayer dollars for his vanity projects: his ballroom, the mess at the Lincoln Reflecting pool green swamp thanks to no bid contracts he gave his pals who did not know how to do this kind of project, the arch de trump he claims will also be a military base (he says that to get this vanity project to fit into the category the Supreme Court is permitting), the East Wing demolition, the Oval Office tacky gold makeover, a golf course that is currently used by regular guys in Washington DC that he wants to make into a championship golf course for the uber-rich elites he loves to impress and so much more.
Remember when Trump said he was gonna drain the swamp? Well now we know Trump IS the swamp. And his cabinet members and others in his administration are just as corrupt as he is.
Are you following the recent Alina Habba scandal?
A report attributed to The New York Times raises questions about a lucrative contract involving Donald Trump’s former attorney Alina Habba and Venezuelan billionaire Julio Herrera Velutini. According to the report discussed in the video, Habba entered an agreement potentially worth more than $50 million while serving as an adviser at the Justice Department. Weeks after she began working for a company associated with Herrera Velutini, Trump granted the billionaire a full presidential pardon.
Who else is in on this authoritarian takeover? Fox News, OANN, Newsmax, WSJ Editorial Page (sometimes) and other rightwing media outlets owned by billionaires –creating state run propaganda news that supports Trump no matter what he does or how demented he has or will become. Speaking of demented…Trump has been doing rallies where he comments on the male physique of Republicans running for office.
President Donald Trump can’t stop gushing about Ohio Senator Jon Husted’s body during his attempts to boost the Republican candidate ahead of the midterms — even when he’s campaigning in a completely different state.
Trump first raved about Husted’s physical features, namely his butt, during a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, last week after learning that the senator is a former All-American defensive back at the University of Dayton.
Ukraine is another victim. Are you following what Elon Musk (and perhaps also Trump) did to Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting Russian aggression?
A report attributed to The Wall Street Journal raises questions about Elon Musk’s role in restricting Starlink connectivity used by Ukrainian military forces. According to the reporting discussed in the video, the slowdown affected some Ukrainian drone operations and prompted concern among officials in Kyiv. Conflicting accounts emerged over whether President Donald Trump and other administration officials were consulted before the restrictions were introduced. The video also examines Trump’s exchanges with reporters and a new documentary about Musk’s business interests and political influence.
Trump is the weirdest, strangest, craziest, most corrupt, and most aggressive president we have ever had.
ATTACK FROM WITHIN
Our country is being assaulted by our own president, our own government: DOGE, weaponized DEI, tariffs, the Iran War, the demolition of the East Wing of the White House, attacks on our research institutions, our universities, immigrants, dismantling of our health care and social safety net, and attacks on our global allies.
What has all of this done to us and to our country?
We are not doing well.
AMERICANS ARE GETTING HIT UPSIDE THE HEAD
Cost of living is up: groceries, diesel, gas. We are losing our health care, our rights, our future as a democratic country and our strong position in the world.
Congress should be a check and balance on a rogue president, but MAGA Republicans are a bunch of chickens. These Republicans are also waiting to see who wins this midterm battle and by how much.
The victor gets to write the history books.
It’s up to us to make sure they don’t get to write the history books.
Which brings us back to the big issue:
WHAT CAN WE DO?
This is a 5-alarm fire. Everything is on the line for future of our country, our kids and grandkids, the rule of law, our hopes for our once proud democracy – all of this is at risk.
A lot of us understand the danger. We want to do the right thing but what to do? Which groups to support, which candidates to donate to. Many of us are getting slammed by texts and calls and emails begging for donations for candidates and causes.
I have talked with people I trust on the frontline of this fight, and I have good news to report.
A strong pro-democracy countermovement has been quietly forming and activating. There are many smart, capable very engaged people in this movement. The way out of this mess is for all of us who care about our country to go to the polls in the largest numbers possible.
We must get the largest possible Democratic victory across the board in national, state and local elections. If there is a blue tsunami, Trump and the MAGAs will not be able to succeed in their cheat-to-win schemes. The election will be seen as a rebuke to the MAGA movement. People will start to look beyond Trump and figure out that they better break from him.
THE GOOD NEWS
Fortunately, we have the A Team working to protect our election and a prodemocracy countermovement that is strong and growing. Our country needs our help to become a better, stronger version of itself. Together we can win this fight for the future of our country.
Fortunately, it feels really empowering and hopeful to be active in this effort, to help our neighbors to vote, to work to reimagine and reinvent our democracy to make it more durable and sustainable.
Fortunately, Trump and his administration are inept. They are doing such a rotten job –the headwinds favor our team. At times I am very thankful to Trump for being such an obviously corrupt dictator. Thanks to Trump, Democrats might not only win back Congress, but could win many governorships, and state and local elections which are super important if the MAGAs are going to lose power.
If Trump and the MAGAs lose big, we can start to work reimagining and reinvigorating our government, so it works for all Americans, protects our rights and keeps us safe.
