There are some Republicans who will never give up on Trump. So, let’s just start there. Millions of Americans have decided that Trump is their guy, and they will never move on from him. They represent about 28% of the Republican Party. They think he can beat Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch. They think Trump gave them what they wanted when he was president. They think the economy was better even though it was Trump who raised the deficit by an astronomical 7 trillion dollars.
TRUMP V BIDEN
The debt has also gone up in Biden’s time of office as well, but the difference is that the spending the Biden administration incurs is designed to build economic growth and good jobs for middle America instead of giving a handout to the richest Americans under the false assumption that somehow that money will trickle down and benefit the average guy. The CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act are all plowing money back into the American economy with the goal of creating jobs IN America FOR Americans. This administration is addressing climate change and shoring up human rights, getting internet services to rural areas and much more.
The money flow from Trump benefited the already rich who bought themselves more yachts, vacations and homes. The money flow from Biden is spurring economic resurgence including rural areas and the rust belt, building an American economy that benefits the average working guy. Biden is trying to help non college educated working people (no matter what color their skin might be) who are trying to have successful lives. Trump was trying to help the 1% stay richer. Biden is trying to bring Americans together. Trump is all about divisiveness and fear mongering because fearful White people are motivated to go to the polls to vote for him. If more Americans understood this difference they would move on from Trump.
Biden has been delivering on the promises Trump made and failed to deliver on. Remember how Trump promised infrastructure week? It never happened with Trump. It is happening with Biden. Remember how Trump promised to lower prescription drug costs? He didn’t get it done. Biden is getting it done. Remember how Trump said he was for the little guy? No, he wasn’t. Bidenomics is working to beat back inflation and create more jobs for American workers. Our country is avoiding the inflation hitting post pandemic Europe. Trump gave America empty promises. Biden has created the strongest and most stable economy in the world despite a divided congress.
“Bidenomics” is … a return to the economic vision that built the country in the fifty years before it. Investing in infrastructure and programs that help ordinary Americans puts money and the power of innovation into their hands, driving the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, as Biden puts it. (Heather Cox Richardson, historian Letters from an American)
Many Americans don’t realize how much Biden is helping our country. He is malingering in the polls when he should be dominating. Biden and his surrogates need to get the message out to Americans before the election.
As for Trump, MAGAs make up 28% of the Republican Party. That is not enough to get Trump elected. The question is how many less attached Republicans will move on from Trump and when.
WHAT IS THE TIPPING POINT FOR PERSUADABLE REPUBLICANS TO LEAVE TRUMP?
The turning point for persuadable Republicans will come when these voters realize that Trump cannot beat Joe Biden. They will decide that even though Trump was the best president ever, they have to move on if they hope to win. With polls showing Trump and Biden currently neck and neck at 43%, these persuadable Republicans are not yet convinced that Trump will lose.
I think that tipping point may be just around the corner given the exposure Trump will be getting from the four criminal cases working their way through the justice system. Trump’s indictment by the DOJ and Fani Willis does not change minds yet—because Trump can turn that into a grievance and a call to action against his enemies. What will persuade people is the COURTROOM EVIDENCE. Courtroom evidence will come out in a setting where defense attorneys challenge the witness testimony. Given the strength of these indictments and the witnesses themselves, who are Republicans who wanted Trump to win again but would not break the law to make that happen, the visual exposure of Trump as a cheater is just around the corner.
I don’t think Americans like cheaters. You might want your team to win the football game, but if they are exposed as cheaters who were breaking the rules to pretend they won when they lost, that isn’t a real victory. That’s an embarrassment and a failure. If Trump is finally seen as the loser he truly is, many persuadable voters will look elsewhere.
The Georgia trial could more effectively penetrate the conservative disinformation bubble than the other cases. The reason is twofold: Georgia allows cameras in their courtrooms, and Fani Willis used a RICO statute to indict Trump and a lot of other co-conspirators in a scheme to defraud and deprive Americans of having their vote count. America will watch this MUST SEE TV.
Even if Trump is able to sever his case from the other coconspirators in Georgia who are demanding a speedy trial, the evidence and testimony in that first trial will expose Trump. The trial will be all about what Trump did and said to get his way. His coconspirators will all be pointing their fingers at him as the one who was behind the plot to steal the election and forced all of them to make it happen, just as the hundreds of January 6th insurrectionists, who are going to jail, pointed their fingers at Trump as the reason they attacked the capitol. Trump was the Commander-in-Chief back then and he told them the election was stolen and they should “stop the steal”. Because Willis charged the Georgia case as a RICO, the public will hear the entire plot, not just what happened in Georgia. More Americans will get it that Trump pushed a plot to hang onto power after losing a free and fair election to Joe Biden. The Big Lie was just that. A big fat lie.
FIRST AMENDMENT RIGHT TO SPEAK IS NOT A DEFENSE THAT WILL WORK FOR TRUMP
Trump is a master of information warfare and propaganda. He knows how to message better than almost anyone else in the political world. He found himself an attorney, John Lauro, who understands his task is not to prepare for trial so much as to message and engage in a PR blitz campaign. Lauro knows his job is to try as hard as possible to keep the alternate universe of disinformation going strong. John Lauro is not putting forth any viable legal defenses for Trump. If there were good defenses, John Lauro would be telling the world about them. But he is not. Instead, Lauro has been claiming that Trump’s first amendment rights are being violated. Which isn’t true.
Trump has a right to speak, and as a candidate for president his political speech is recognized as a very important kind of speech that must be well protected. But when the speech you are engaged in is part of a crime, you lose that protection. For example, intimidating witnesses is not protected political speech. Speaking when you engaged in a fraud or engaged in a conspiracy to stay in power by overturning an election is also not protected speech. You cannot claim a first amendment right covers what you said when you engaged in corrupt acts that are the basis of your criminal indictment.
Obviously, speech is often involved in activities that are also part of the fraud or other crime a criminal has engaged in. When you engage in speaking or texting or tweeting or “x”ing or Truth Socializing IF you are also committing a crime, then that speech is NOT protected by the first amendment. That only makes sense. If someone lies to you to get you to buy worthless property in Florida, those lies are not going to be protected speech in your case against the person who lied to you. If you are robbing a bank with other co conspirators, what you say to each other in the commission of your crime is not protected speech. What was said will come into evidence at the time of the trial and WILL be used as evidence against the person who uttered those words.
TRUMP HAS MET HIS MATCH IN JUDGE CHUTKAN
Trump’s attorney, John Lauro, asked Judge Chutkan (the judge in Trump’s federal case where he is charged with 4 counts of criminal conduct for trying to subvert the outcome of the 2020 election) to delay his trial until 2026. That was a nonstarter for Judge Chutkan. She did not grant the wishes of the government trial team for a January trial either. She set the trial for March 4th, 2024, knowing how much it matters that Americans understand who they are choosing when they vote for president.
When a defendant is indicted, he or she may be allowed to post bond (make bail) and remain free, but it is not a given. A judge can impose restrictions on that defendant’s freedom and being free on bail is dependent on following the restrictions. If the restrictions are not followed, the defendant can be warned and/or can lose his freedom, or, in this case, the judge can move the trial date up sooner. Trump’s goal is to avoid having any trial until after the election because he hopes he will win.
If he wins, Trump has promised to remake the government, dismantle the Justice Department, fire thousands of government workers unless they are loyal to him, and set himself up as the first dictator of the United States. All of the federal trials would be dismissed if he wins re-election. He has also vowed to seek retribution and revenge. He will go after Biden, Merrick Garland, Jack Smith, Fani Willis, the judges in these cases as well as many others on Trump’s enemies list. Trump has announced his plan to dismantle democracy in a 1,000-page plan, called “Project 2025,” which calls for politicizing the Department of Justice and law enforcement officers and giving far more power to the president. (Heather Cox Richardson)
Judge Chutkan would surely be on Trump’s enemies list. Trump has already attacked this judge online. After that a Texas woman threatened to kill Judge Chutkan and other Democrats. The judges’ security detail has been beefed up, the Texas woman was arrested, and this Judge issued warnings to Trump. On Monday, when Judge Chutkan set the trial date on March 4th, she warned Trump again not to influence the jury pool with his statements or social media comments. If Trump doesn’t behave himself, this judge will move the trial date up sooner, which is the last thing Trump wants. The good news about a March 4th trial date or an even earlier date, given the amount of evidence he must read, John Lauro will need to spend more time studying up to get ready for trial instead of doing public relations TV appearances.
IF THE COURTROOM EVIDENCE COMES OUT BEFORE THE ELECTION MANY PERSUADABLE REPUBLICANS WILL BREAK FROM TRUMP
Federal trials are generally not televised, but this trial COULD be an exception because it is so impactful for our country. Given the facts of the case and the mountain of evidence that Jack Smith is ready to present with strong witnesses who are themselves Republicans who were loyal to Trump until he tried to cheat to win, I think both this trial and the Georgia trial are likely to create that tipping point for many persuadable Republicans.
The question will be timing. If the trials get pushed back beyond the primary season, as Trump wants, the Republican Party might not have time to regroup. That would doom the Republican Party to a nominee who would become a convicted felon before the November election. And that would be an early Christmas present they would be giving to the Democrats. Stay tuned.