Even as Trump amasses power for himself as the first American dictator-in-chief who is attempting to install a repressive police state, he keeps losing in the courts and in the court of public opinion. Gaining ground? Losing ground? How will this turn out for America?
Update: the results of the election held on November 4th point to a blue wave for Democrats in 2026. (My next post will be about what yesterday’s election predicts for 2026.)
IS ICE WINNING?
ICE is on a mission to create a pretext for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act in key Democratic cities. Trump wants to get the military onto the streets of American cities to suppress any dissent and control the election outcomes. He needs evidence of mayhem on the streets to get the blessing of the Supreme Court. To that end ICE is working on creating mayhem in Chicago and its suburbs.
The New York Times reports:
Federal immigration agents fanned out across Chicago and its North Shore suburbs on Halloween, chasing suspects through front yards, driving S.U.V.s onto sidewalks and using chemical agents during confrontations with furious residents.
Several people, including at least one woman who said that she was a U.S. citizen, were arrested after [allegedly] interfering with immigration operations. In Evanston, a suburb north of Chicago, Border Patrol agents detained at least one additional person after a car rear-ended the agents’ vehicle on Friday, [after the agents’ vehicle abruptly halted causing the car behind to bump into it]. Bystanders said that a motorist had been following federal agents along a major street when the agents stopped short, causing the car to crash into it.
Evanston police officers responded to the scene as dozens of people shouted and jeered at the agents while demanding that the people detained be released.
Is the Trump regime “winning” on immigration? Is ICE creating enough mayhem to help Trump support the claim that he needs to use the emergency power of the Insurrection Act which would allow him to put the National Guard on the streets of America? Will the Supremes back him up?
Or is this tactic rapidly losing Trump the support he needs to successfully impose his will on the country?
CBS News reports: The Trump administration’s deportation program has divided Americans in recent months, marked by consistently strong backing from Republicans and MAGA Republicans, in particular, and less so among others. Earlier in President Trump’s term, it had larger majority approval, but since mid-summer, the program has hovered around more even division.
WHAT ABOUT LEGAL BATTLES?
Trump has a mixed bag in court but mostly he is losing.
Trump’s administration has failed nearly 93% of the time when its agency actions have been challenged in court — typically for violations of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). [Democracy Forward]
But some of the cases that challenge this administration’s most egregious or bold actions (depending on your point of view) are on appeal or otherwise held up in legal limbo. They are awaiting a decisive determination by a far right leaning Supreme Court that seems to be all in on empowering Trump as a unitary executive. Wednesday the Court will hear arguments about Trump’s tariffs. The questions asked by these justices are usually helpful to predict their decisions. Trump is an iconoclast who moves fast and breaks things while the courts respond slowly. Trump understands that and he keeps moving quickly and breaking more things, daring anyone to stop him.
PUBLIC OPINION
In the court of public opinion, however, Trump has sinking poll numbers that are getting worse as the government shutdown pain gets more real for Americans.
The Economist reports:
Mr. Trump was re-elected on a wave of economic pessimism, telling voters that “incomes will skyrocket, inflation will vanish completely, jobs will come roaring back and the middle class will prosper like never, ever before” during his second term. So far they have been disappointed. Ratings of his handling of the economy and inflation were net positive shortly after his inauguration. They have since fallen to strongly negative in the wake of his declarations of trade war and the ensuing response of investors. YouGov’s data also suggest Americans now disapprove of his handling of immigration, another issue central to his re-election.
As of Trump’s 285th day in office his net approval is 18 points under water: 57% disapprove and 39% approve.
46% of Americans blame Trump and the GOP for the shutdown. The Dems get blamed by 23%. [ABC News/ Ipsos/ Washington Post]
56% of Americans oppose Trump’s ballroom. Only 28% support it. Independents like the ballroom even less. 61% oppose it.
Trump’s approval rating on the economy is bad too. Disapproval ranges from 53% to 62%.
50% of Americans polled want the Democrats to control Congress and 42% want the Republicans in control after 2026.
When it comes to whether Trump has lived up to expectations, 65% say he has fallen short in looking out for the middle class. 66% say he has fallen short when it comes to inflation.
46% strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance so far.
WHAT IS COMING
Trump can expect his disapproval ratings to get even worse.
Currently, millions of Americans, who are already struggling to pay their bills, are facing sticker shock from the astronomical rise in the cost of their ACA health care insurance coverage without the support they had gotten from government subsidies. This New York Times article breaks down the amount someone will pay depending on income, age and where he or she lives. Some Americans would have to pay 300% more to get the same coverage. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/30/upshot/obamacare-subsidies-new-prices.html
This rise in cost is the direct result of the so-called Big Beautiful Bill that removes government subsidies that help lower income Americans afford ACA benefits. Republicans have been trying to end Obamacare ever since it was created, but were foiled time and time again because Americans actually like having healthcare insurance and want their representatives to keep the ACA going. John McCain famously gave his thumbs down refusal to kill the ACA the last time Congressional Republicans got close to murdering it, saving the health care system for millions of Americans. The ACA has become more popular over time.
Nearly 24 million Americans purchased health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces for 2025, a record high for this program. When including individuals covered by the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, the total number of Americans with ACA-related coverage reaches approximately 45 million.
The ACA was never perfect, but at least Americans got healthcare insurance plans instead of showing up at emergency rooms on death’s door and fighting insurance companies that could deny coverage for preexisting conditions. That kind of last ditch emergency care also costs Americans more money and risks more lives. ACA distributes costs across a larger, more balanced group of people and provides targeted financial relief, which prevents costs from becoming prohibitively expensive for those who need care the most. But Republicans have never stopped trying to kill the bill –this time they think they have the magic bullet–they made it too expensive for less affluent Americans to afford.
FALLOUT FOR MAGAS
MAGA Republicans in Congress risk being seen as heartless and uncaring. They are removing health care from struggling Americans while they give tax cuts to the ultrawealthy. Trump, their self-centered, arrogant leader, spends millions on White House renovations, knocking down the entire East Wing and installing a huge gold encrusted ballroom. So far, Trump seems unconcerned with the pain being inflicted by the shutdown. He is giddy about his great big golden ballroom that will cost $300 million dollars- reminding everyone of the corrupt gilded age in America. Don’t be fooled by the idea that the taxpayers are not picking up this tab. The corporate billionaires that Trump is palling around with who are shelling out big bucks for this golden ballroom know it’s pay to play in Trumpland.
How long will this shutdown go on?
That all depends on Trump. There is no way to end the shutdown until Trump gets involved. Why? House Republicans are hopeless pussies. They are playing “Mother May I?” with Trump as “mother”. The only thing House Republicans can do is what Trump allows them do. They no longer think for themselves. To even gingerly step away from him is to risk a thunderbolt from the White House that would drive days of news and risk depressing a MAGA base that’s hard enough to turn out when the president isn’t on the ballot. Mike Johnson is not the real Speaker of the House. Trump is. Until Congress reasserts its power, our constitutional democracy is on life support and Trump gets to rule as a king.
TRUMP’S AWOL ON THE SHUTDOWN
So, what has Trump been doing instead of negotiating a deal with the Dems? He has been traveling around the world getting gold crowns in Japan and saying he has made a deal with Xi in China although nothing was signed. This weekend he was golfing again. Oh, and he hosted a “Great Gatsby”-themed Halloween costume party just hours before millions of Americans lost their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits. It was a metaphor for what Trump is doing to our country. The rich have parties and get richer. They could care less about struggling Americans.
Trump’s flippant advice to MAGA Mike Johnson about what to do to end the shutdown was to get rid of the filibuster and pass everything with a simple majority which means passage of the Big Ugly Bill without needing Democrats’ help at all. That would also mean the end of Obamacare-something that would make Trump’s own rural voters REALLY mad- solely at the hands of the Republicans.
Johnson and Thune say they are not ready to get rid of the filibuster. The filibuster forces Dems to join the MAGAs to get to a supermajority vote of 60 – which is what you need to do to get most bills passed, the reconciliation bill is one of the exceptions to that rule. I think the MAGAs are worried about how bad it would be for THEM if there is no way to share blame with the Dems for the pain Americans are about to experience because of their Big Ugly reconciliation bill.
MAGA Mike has shut down the House waiting for mother Trump to tell the kids what to do.
And there is another reason for the House to be on an extended vacation… MAGA Mike is afraid to swear in the newly elected Democrat who would be the 218th vote on the Epstein files. What people aren’t saying but what is even more treacherous for the MAGAs is that there will likely be many more Republican representatives jumping on the band wagon if and when that vote to release the files is taken. The MAGA base has been hounding their representatives to release this information. Some MAGAs still believe the Epstein Files will expose Democratic elites who paid Epstein for access to trafficked girls. What they seem oddly naive about is that Trump himself, many people in his cabinet and many Republican donors are also among the elites who are named in the Epstein files.
MORE PAIN COMING FOR AMERICANS BECAUSE OF THE REPUBLICAN BILL AND SHUTDOWN
This week, a number of pain points, caused directly by the shutdown have struck, or soon will.
42 million Americans rely on monthly SNAP benefits to keep from going hungry. SNAP benefits will no longer be funded starting November 1st. (Yes, two federal judges have ordered the government to fund SNAP so far, but Trump is asking for “clarification” from the courts which is just a ploy to keep the pain level up on the American people with the hope that the Dems will cave.)
Because of these games Trump is playing, Americans in many Republican districts will go hungry- many of them are children. It’s important to understand the motive here. This Republican administration WANTS Americans to go hungry to pressure soft hearted Dems to give in and vote to reopen the government without any concessions from the MAGAs. So far the Dems have pulled together on this and are standing up to the pressure.
However, even more pain is on the way for Americans.
- Air traffic controllers missed their first full paycheck of the shutdown on Tuesday, which union officials and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned would make a complex system less safe. They are some of more than a million federal workers now going without pay.
- Funding for other antipoverty programs, like Head Start, the Women, Infants and Children nutrition program and low-income heating assistance, is growing increasingly uncertain.
- Open enrollment for Obamacare begins Saturday, when many users will sign up for the sharply increased premiums that are the result of expiring health care subsidies that Democrats have made central to the standoff.
The shutdown pain is going to get more real in the next few days to weeks.
Don’t be fooled by the Republican trying to pin the blame on the Dems. Try dancing a waltz with a nonexistent partner. Americans know who is in charge of our government. It’s not the Democrats.
AMERICANS MOSTLY BLAME THE MAGAS
Democrats are more united, saying that Trump and Republicans are to blame for the shutdown (81%) than Republicans saying Democrats are to blame (72%). Twice as many independents say Trump and Republicans are responsible (46%) than Democrats (23%). [ABC News]
The most important group to watch are the Independent voters. They are lining up against Trump and the worse it gets the greater the likelihood that more independent voters will break from Trump in larger numbers.
WHAT IS COMING
We are in a race now between how angry Americans get at Trump vs how fast Trump can stifle dissent and terrify Americans to get them to shut up and cower in fear.
I think Americans love their freedom and I don’t think they are going to shut up.
People in this country glorify freethinking, free speech and limitless opportunity. Americans love frontiersmen, cowboys, and rebels. When you take away their rights, their opportunities for a good future: family, jobs, housing, health care, and damage general affordability, you get the rise of charismatic Democratic socialists like Zorhan Momdani who will be the next mayor of New York. In other words, Trump’s extremism and cruelty may well be igniting a huge cultural backlash, possibly a blue wave, that would move especially the young people of our country significantly further to the political left. We will see which way the wind is blowing after this Tuesday’s elections.
The Hill reports:
Trump’s approval is down across all age groups, but young adults have seen the most dramatic drop-off in approval since the start of the president’s second term. Among 18- to 29-year-olds in the latest survey, Trump was nearly 55 points underwater — with only 20 percent approving of the way Trump handles his job and 75 percent disapproving.
MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE SEES THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL
There is one Republican who is reading the room and getting ahead of the fury that will be unleashed on Trump and the MAGAs: Margery Taylor Greene. She is breaking with Trump and the MAGAs over some key issues.
NBC News reports:
[T]he Georgia Republican began posting on X and confirming reports that she had reamed out her party leadership and expressed frustration with the White House’s political team. “I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders. And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is,” she wrote. Greene also argued that Republicans’ shutdown strategy has angered the American people and hurt Trump’s popularity, according to the source on the call.
She is right. If and when Trump’s approvals sink even lower (watch for approvals under 35%) more Republicans in Congress will grow a pair. We might get back a more muscular House before 2026 as MAGAs try to prevent a blue wave.