GOOD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRATS AND THE RULE OF LAW
IOWA SHOWS VULNERABILITES FOR TRUMP WITH EDUCATED, SUBURBAN VOTERS
Trump (in Iowa) received support from a mere fifty-six thousand caucus-goers, amounting to some seven per cent of the registered Republicans in the state and just three per cent of over-all registered voters in Iowa. More people voted for Muriel Bowser in Washington, D.C.,’s last mayoral primary. All told, Iowa represents less than one per cent of the nation’s population—and next week’s New Hampshire primary comes in a state that is even smaller.(Axios)
Across the ten most educated counties in Iowa Mr Trump won 42% of the vote, compared with 66% across the ten least educated ones. And this analysis also points to a weakness among suburban voters. Mr Trump received an estimated 43% of the suburban vote in contrast to 60% of the rural vote. (The Economist)
TRUMP CONFUSES NIKKI HALEY WITH NANCY PELOSI AND JOE BIDEN WITH BARACK OBAMA
Trump supporters might claim that Biden is old but it’s Trump who is showing clear signs of mental decline by confusing Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi.
As she campaigned in Keene, New Hampshire, Haley referenced Trump’s speech the night before, in which he mistakenly asserted that Haley was in charge of Capitol security on January 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the building seeking to stop the certification of his loss to Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump first said that Haley turned down security offered by his administration on Jan. 6 and then again mentioned Haley, adding, “They destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything, deleted and destroyed all of it.” (multiple news sources including NBC PBS and many more.)
Trump has also confused Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Former President Donald Trump mixed up two of his political nemeses, President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama, for at least the seventh time in recent months Saturday—the latest in a series of gaffes by the 77-year-old former president that’s made him the target of a line of attack (Forbes)
OVERALL, COURTS ARE UPHOLDING VOTING RIGHTS
Following their humiliating defeats in 2020 and 2022, Republicans and their conservative allies insisted that they were going to upgrade their anti-voting efforts heading into the presidential election cycle. Instead, a new report from Democracy Docket shows that 2023 was another year in which courts protected citizens’ voting rights and ensured free and fair elections.
Once again, pro-voting groups dominated in every category of court wins. In a year that saw 146 separate court orders across 34 states, pro-democracy forces won more than twice as many times as they lost. This includes winning nearly twice as many final orders and 70% of the interim orders in cases that are still pending. Pro-voting victories spanned state and federal courts at all levels. (Marc Elias- Democracy Docket)
WINDS OF CHANGE EVEN IN FLORIDA
On Tuesday, aerospace engineer and 21-year military veteran Tom Keen won a special election in Florida House District 35 (Central Florida). His victory garnered the majority of no-party affiliated as well as many moderate Republican votes. It’s significant for future Florida contests that Tom’s campaign highlighted abortion rights.
What’s more, Tom flipped a Florida House seat from red to blue — the first such triumph since 2018. (Ironically, this is a district that DeSantis won in 2022.)
Following this critical win, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said, “We proved that Florida is still worth fighting for, and that a well-organized, well-funded Democratic campaign can still win a swing seat in this state.”
ANDREW WARREN, Elected Florida States Attorney, OUSTED BY DESANTIS, WINS HIS APPEAL AND LIKELY REINSTATEMENT
A federal appeals court affirmed Wednesday that Gov. Ron DeSantis violated the First Amendment by suspending Tampa prosecutor Andrew Warren — but disagreed with a lower court’s view that no action could be taken.
Why it matters: The ruling…sends the case back to the lower court to decide whether it will reinstate him.
Catch up fast: Warren, a Democrat, was elected as Hillsborough County’s top prosecutor in 2016 and 2020.
- DeSantis suspended Warren in August 2022, citing a pledge the prosecutor signed not to criminalize abortion and gender-affirming medical care.
- Warren then sued DeSantis to get his job back, claiming that DeSantis violated the First Amendment.
- A federal judge ruled last January that DeSantis had violated Warren’s rights but that the court didn’t have the power to undo the suspension.
“We look forward to returning to the District Court to obtain the relief that has been denied to me and all the voters of Hillsborough County for 17 months: reinstating the person elected by the voters,” Warren said in a statement. (Tampa Bay Axios)
ECONOMIC NUMBERS TURNING AROUND TO FAVOR BIDEN BIGLY
January 19th was one of the happier days for the White House in some time:
- Record stocks: The S&P 500 and Dow industrials set new highs, confirming we’re in a full-on, horns-out, snorting bull market. The S&P 500 closed nearly 1% higher than the previous record, on Jan. 3, 2022. (Go deeper with Axios’ Matt Phillips)
- Strongest consumer sentiment in years: A University of Michigan index that tracks consumer sentiment (graph above) has surged more than 28% since November. Since the late 1970s, the only other period of such a rapid two-month turnabout came in March 1991, after the U.S. victory in the first Gulf War. (Go deeper with the prolific Matt Phillips)
- Inflation sinking: Economists say high inflation has mostly been vanquished. Retail figures this week showed jolly holiday spending that exceeded optimistic forecasts, and signaled Americans are confident enough to keep spending. (Axios AM)
WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUMP IS CRIMINALLY CONVICTED?
The poll, which currently has President Biden leading Donald Trump by 2 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, surveyed 3,815 registered voters, asking them whether they would vote for Trump in the event of a criminal conviction. The results could not be worse for Trump.
Only 20% of those polled said they would vote for Trump if he was convicted, with 58% stating they would not. 20% of those polled were unsure. Among Democrats, 91% of those polled would not vote for Trump if convicted, while 28% of Republicans would abandon the former President along with 55% of independents. Tellingly, only 43% of Republicans affirmatively stated that they would vote for Trump if convicted.
TRUMP HAS ALREADY BEEN CIVILLY CONVICTED
If it seems like the wheels of justice turn too slowly you are right–they DO turn way too slowly. Trump faces 3 criminal trials: 1) the Stormy Daniels case in NY, 2) the Georgia RICO case (Fani Willis), and Jack Smith’s coup plot case in DC (brought by the DOJ).
So far Donald Trump has been found liable in two civil cases. He slandered E Jeanne Carroll and he continues to do so. He is facing his second reckoning for his continuing conduct. This time the jury has been instructed that he is already liable and the question for the jury is how much money will do the trick to get him to stop maligning E Jeanne Carroll on social media and in his public statements.
Trump has also been found liable in his civil fraud case for massively coloring way outside the lines when he valued his properties for different purposes which allowed Trump Org to pocket more money than it was entitled to and defrauding the banks and the state of New York. How much will he have to pay? Judge Engoron will decide that soon based on the evidence and testimony in that case. Normally someone in Trump’s shoes would have been deferential to the judge that is about to decide his financial future but Trump played the bad boy in and out of court. Trump played to his slavish base by maligning the judge and his clerk and never saying “sorry”.
The criminal case most likely to be tried to completion before the election now seems to be the Stormy Daniels case which is ready to go but as a state case the prosecutor, Alvin Bragg, NY States Attorney, is waiting for the green light from Jack Smith /Judge Chutkan. That federal coup plot case would normally take precedence over the state case, but Trump’s legal team is raising every possible federal appellate argument to try to play the system and delay delay delay to avoid that likely conviction. Judge Chutkan just announced that she will be delaying trial preparation for that case because of Trump’s appeal on the issue of immunity. A three judge panel heard the argument and didn’t buy Trump’s autocratic claim that presidents should have total immunity. We know how this panel is going to rule. They are writing their opinion now and may be trying to be sure that all three of the judges agree on everything in their decision which would make their decision stronger. Trump can then ask for a full review en banc. That review will not help Trump. Judges are not going to decide that presidents are kings or dictators.
Then the immunity issue will be appealed by Trump to the Supreme Court and those justices will have the most important decision to make of their entire lives. The decision will be whether to reject the case and send it back for Judge Chutkan to go ahead and try, which would result in Trump being tried before the election despite the current delay (of about 5 weeks), or agree to hear the case which could give Trump the delay he desperately wants and needs if he has a chance to evade consequences before the election.
Stay Tuned. This is coming. But even if Trump is not criminally convicted of the coup plot before the presidential election, the economic winds are shifting to help Joe Biden thanks to Biden’s vigorous economic investment in America.