Trump’s Epic Fail

Trump got himself elected promising three things to the American people: lower cost of living, exposure of the pedophile elites in the Epstein Files, and no more wars. Trump has failed to deliver on all three promises.

Americans are not happy about this. His current approval ratings have him at 36% approval and 62% disapproval in the most recent Reuters/ Ipsos poll. On his handling of the economy Trump gets 31% disapproval as inflation rises.

• Since January 2021, consumer prices have climbed a cumulative 26%.

We are watching a man who looks and sounds more and more strange at times, disconnected from reality and belligerent, cursing on social media like a demented old geezer, oddly upbeat about problems that require more expertise to solve effectively, seemingly bringing the world to the brink of annihilation with his shouty social media posts and then acting like everything is just fine and dandy, on track and going as planned.

On Easter Sunday Trump posted a social media rant that set the whole world on edge by threatening to decimate an entire civilization if Iran did not comply with his order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

If this man were a Democrat, everyone would be saying he is too old, too weird, too unwilling to listen to experts and too angry to be in charge of our country. Unfortunately this enraged old man has the most powerful military on earth at his disposal.  Seems like no one is willing to take the car keys away from gramps even though most of us know that’s what needs to be done.

So far Iran is emerging from this war a more powerful country than it was before the war began thanks to Trump and Hegseth’s arrogance and amateur hour leadership.  Iran survived a military attack by Israel and the US, it has not given up its enriched uranium, and the regime did NOT change, despite what Trump claims. Iran’s aging Ayatollah and cabinet members did not survive the surprise attack, it’s true. But the regime itself seems more cemented in place than ever with Iranians demonstrating their support for it in the streets instead of trying to overthrow it.

Not only is this next iteration of government in Iran more extreme than the one that was blown away, this new regime is also more certain to work feverishly to develop a nuclear bomb now that they see how much power they could wield if they had one. Perhaps most important of all, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz at least for now.

Our military did the job it was tasked with, but this is not a win for Trump no matter what he might say. It’s also hard to see how this war becomes a true win for Trump. Some wars cannot be won with armaments alone. Diplomacy matters. Knowledgeable people at the table matter. You probably shouldn’t just send your son-in-law and two other guys and a few aides who are NOT experts on Iran or the law or nuclear energy without a full team of experts to back them up if you really want to reach a peace accord or ceasefire. But that’s what Trump has done.

BLOCKADE?

Now Trump is saying he will blockade the Strait which is supposed to act as pressure on Iran. Maybe it will. But which countries will join ours in this venture now that Trump has been badmouthing our NATO allies? Not a great way to make and keep friends. How will our navy be able to find all the mines that were scattered about and could blow up ships if they are not located? How long will they have to be there blocking the strait? Will insurance companies believe the strait is safe enough for commercial vessels? How much will this cost and will Americans put up with the rising inflation this continuing blockage of the strait will cause?

Trump is not the only guy who gets to weigh in on whether the world achieves peace after this surprise bombardment of Iran. Israel gets to weigh in. Iran gets to weigh in. Saudi Arabia is also egging the president on and Lebanon, which is being attacked by Israel, is also in the mix. Trump might think he can send in JD Vance with an ultimatum or two: leave the strait alone and give up on your nuclear ambitions, but that’s not going to do the trick.

So far, Trump’s war has made our country weaker and more isolated; he has damaged relationships with our NATO allies, and lost decades of trust and faith other countries once had in our country.

Thanks to this turn of events. Iran has figured out that it has a huge geographical and asymmetric advantage over global trade by maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran literally has Trump (and the world) by the Strait of Hormuz and can twist at will- exerting pain at the gas pump, with farmers and with the America consumer driven economy.

This is awesome power. Iran thinks it can also make a ton of bucks by setting itself up as the toll collector for ships that want to use the Strait of Hormuz safely. If this works out for Iran you could imagine they might do the same things with other adjacent waterways.

Currently thousands of vessels are held up, waiting for some kind of peace deal.

The so-called victory that Trump prematurely announced is not going very well at this point.

… “Decisions on the conditions for passing the strait are taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Hosseini’s remarks suggest Iran will require any tankers to use the northerly route close to its coastline, raising questions over whether western or Gulf state-linked vessels will be willing to risk transit.”

… National security analyst Marc Polymeropoulos: “This cease fire agreement seems to be shaky to even unraveling. On multiple levels. Obviously there is some disagreement over what was agreed to. Perhaps that is because we have no experts involved. Same team that did those multipoint agreements in Gaza and Ukraine. That all failed. The Steve and Jared show. No state department experts, etc. – why are we surprised this cease fire agreement is a mess?

Let’s face it, this president and this administration are great at wrecking things, blowing shit up and making threats and demands, but they suck at diplomacy, collaboration, negotiation, governance, and coalition building.

If Donald Trump is feeling pressure from his very bad decision to go to war, he is pretending otherwise. He just wants to brag about his new ballroom or Arch de Trump or Trump Library that isn’t a library at all but a hotel or some other construction project that satisfies his bottomless pit need for approval and self-aggrandizement.

Inflation, which our country has held at bay for many months now, is rising in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, and this war. The March CPI showed inflation at a 3.3 percent annual rate with gas prices causing a rise in prices in the US not seen since 2022.

Trump has no one but himself to blame for this quagmire he has gotten us into. Although he will certainly blame others because that’s what he always does.

Trump wrote a series of posts, an Easter screed, on his social media platform, causing the world to hold its breath waiting to see if Trump would nuke Iran saying:

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran failed to make a deal that includes reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

After that he said:

His posts upset a lot of people, including Pope Leo, as well as some of his most ardent supporters who spoke out on his “Truth social” platform.

• Intra-Movement Cracks: The “America First” wing of the movement is showing frustration over the departure from a “no new wars” stance.
• Influencer Defections: High-profile figures such as Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene have expressed opposition, creating vocal dissent within the movement. (Trump has come out against them on social media.)
• Base Loyalty vs. Expansion: While the core MAGA base remains loyal to Trump, the war has caused a decline in overall approval ratings (approaching 35% by April 1) and alienated some swing voters, particularly as economic pressures and fuel costs rise.
• Independent Disapproval: Independents show high disapproval of the conflict (around 70%), which could limit the movement’s ability to grow, 1.1.1]. 

ORBAN DEFEATED: A SIGN OF LIBERAL DEMOCRACY ON THE RISE?

As Trump flails, Viktor Orban, the Hungarian autocrat that our right wing MAGA movement has embraced and emulated (JD Vance was just in Hungary trying to get him elected), just lost his election and has conceded (something Trump should learn to do). This loss to a pro-democracy challenger is more evidence that the enemies of liberal democracy are facing backlash abroad and at home.

Unless something changes in the current equation, Trump can declare victory and call himself the winner all he wants, but unless the Strait reopens and ships can use that passage without being forced to pay millions of dollars to the Iranians, and Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions, Trump will be seen as the president who started the dumbest war in history. Epic Fury will be go down in history as Epic Fail.