There is a political vibe-shift happening in America. The latest Marist College poll gives Democrats a whopping 14-point lead among registered voters on the national generic ballot, 55–41, up from a 48–48 split in their poll last year. The pollster notes that it’s the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had any notable generic-ballot advantage in their poll.
Why is this happening? In large part, it’s because Trump is crashing out as reflected in poll after poll.
Fox News Poll: Trump Rated Worse Than Biden on the Economy
A Fox News poll conducted November 14–17 among 1,005 registered voters found that 76 percent now rate the U.S. economy negatively under Trump
That’s worse than the 70 percent negative view at the end of former President Joe Biden’s term.
By a nearly two-to-one margin, voters blame Trump more than Biden for the current economic climate (62 percent vs 32 percent).
Economic pessimism remained highest among voters under 45, non-college graduates, lower-income, Hispanic, and Black voters.
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump’s Overall Approval Hits Second-Term Low
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released November 18 found Trump’s overall approval rating had fallen to 38 percent—the lowest of his second term.
The drop was attributed to dissatisfaction over the cost of living, the ongoing government shutdown, and criticism surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein files.
The poll of 1,017 respondents has a roughly 3-percentage point margin of error.
AP-NORC Poll: Approval Among Americans Plummets
According to an AP-NORC poll of 1,143 adults, 33 percent of Americans now approve of Trump’s management of the federal government, down from 43 percent eight months earlier.
Some 33 percent said they approved of the way Trump was handling the economy, with 67 percent disapproving.
Morning Consult: Net Approval Drops to -10
The Morning Consult survey between November 7-9, showed Trump’s net approval at -10 points (44 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), down from -5 at the end of October.
It also showed that the government shutdown had weighed heavily on American voters’ minds, with 63 percent saying they had seen, read, or heard “a lot” about it.
Emerson College: Trump Approval Drops Among Hispanics
Emerson College’s national survey of 1,000 “active voters”, conducted November 3–4, found Trump’s approval dropping 4 points in a month (from 45 percent to 41 percent).
Crucially, disapproval among swing-voting independents rose to 51 percent, up from 44 percent.
Disapproval among Hispanics, another key swing group, increased dramatically from 39 to 54 percent.
Nate Silver: Trump Approval Rating Hits Record Low
Aggregating multiple surveys, pollster Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker reported that Trump’s net approval average has dropped from -14 points, with 42 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving, a record low for his second term.
“Donald Trump’s heightened unpopularity might be here to stay,” Silver wrote earlier this month.
UnidosUS Poll: Trump’s Approval Among Latino Voters Dips
A UnidosUS survey of 3,000 Latino voters before the 2025 elections reported nearly two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Some 13 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 now say they would not do so again, and those who felt the economy was going in the wrong direction trended upwards by 3 percent, according to Somos Votantes data.
These polls are not just a bad day for Trump. They indicate a growing rejection of this president and the MAGA Republican Party.
Trump is looking more and more like a lame dick, I mean duck.
HOW TRUMP BLEW IT
Trump came into power and tried to impose his will on everything, everywhere, all at once. Law firms, universities, corporations, other countries, all of them were ordered to bend the knee to Trump. He tried to silence dissent by forcing out the late night hosts who have been making fun of him. He successfully got Stephen Colbert off the air (after one more year 0f that show). Then he tried to get rid of Jimmy Kimmel. But Americans like their free speech. Thousands canceled their Disney and Hulu subscriptions to fight back. Jimmy Kimmel returned to his show. Americans also like to laugh at what Trump is doing.
South Park, which has such a huge audience Trump cannot afford to attack it, has been having a total field day making fun of Trump and his administration. The cartoon portrays Trump in an abusive relationship with Satan who is now pregnant with their love child, the anti Christ, as Trump tries every trick in the book to get Satan to miscarry. Satan avoids the traps set by Trump but FCC Chair, Brendan Carr, triggers them all. At one point an already injured Carr limps into the Oval Office to talk with Trump, setting off the release of tons of cat feces and litter from a trap door in the ceiling that Trump had set up to fall on Satan so he would miscarry. Carr ends up hospitalized. There is also a torrid love affair going on between JD Vance and Trump. Oh, and Pam Bondi keeps getting a brown nose. It’s hilarious and totally sacrilegious.
South Park’s ratings are through the roof these days. That speaks volumes about how Americans view Trump
WHY TRUMP IS CRASHING AND THE DEMS ARE GAINING
This administration is not meeting the needs of Americans and it’s not behaving the way most Americans want our government to behave: Trump is too extreme, too chaotic, too cruel, too self-centered, too all in with the rich dudes and the tech bros, too unaware of the economic pain Americans experience today, and too inept. Americans elected Trump above all because they thought he would make the economy better for THEM. He is doing the opposite. Trump 1.0 was chaotic but he had minders who kept him in line. Those guard rails are gone now.
Trump has been ruling as if he has a mandate from voters to be the king of America. But he doesn’t. He only won the popular vote by 1.5%. That is not a mandate for the kind of rapid, extreme, despotic imposition of his will that he has been imposing on our country. What’s happening with immigration is a case in point.
HOW AGGRESSIVE IMMIGRATION IS BACKFIRING
The Trump Administration has been overplaying its hand and being too extreme in a lot of ways, but when it comes to immigration, this administration is fueling enormous backlash that will help fuel a blue tsunami in 2026 and could damage the Republican brand for decades to come.
The DHS rolled out aggressive assaults on what it said were the “worst of the worst criminals”. That turned out to be assaults on anyone who commits the crime of looking Hispanic whether they are nannies, day care teachers, landscapers, construction workers or day laborers in blue cities. Many immigrants are interwoven into the fabric of American communities. They are the nannies moms rely on to be able to work and that their children love, landscapers, home repairmen, caretakers for someone’s elderly mom or dad, beauticians who are almost like therapists with their clients- hearing about their problems and sharing concerns, and more. In communities where immigrants provide services they also create relationships and friendships with the people they interact with.
As government thugs ramp up their attacks in blue cities and suburbs, appalled Americans in those cities and suburbs have rallied to protect their immigrant friends and neighbors, by organizing whistle blowing rapid response brigades of peaceful citizens that swarm the agents who are trying to kidnap someone who is a part of their community. Affected cities have mobilized and hardened their communities against the hired thugs our government has unleashed on America.
Los Angeles was the start. Some of those protests featured marching, dancing, and funny signs, but some turned more violent. Organizers quickly realized that violence of any kind played into the narrative of DHS that protesters were criminals and bad people. Peaceful protests against an authoritarian government are much more effective. Lesson learned.
Portland protesters learned about dressing up in dinosaur and chicken costumes so that photos taken with Kristi Noem on a roof above the protesters, intended to highlight vicious protesters below, made her look ridiculous instead. Chicago protesters at the Broadview detention center were peaceful and many wore those hilarious costumes. Reporters documented tear gas and other direct assaults by government agents on priests and peaceful protesters there. After that more priests joined the protests and the Catholic Church including the Pope spoke out against these assaults on immigrants and peaceful protesters.
Hispanics in Chicago’s Little Village and moms in Chicago suburbs learned how to identify and track unmarked cars driven by agents and warn neighbors using social media. They assembled whistle brigades and realized the value of cell phone recordings to document violations of the law by DHS agents and how to get the photos and films to the ACLU. Neighbors alerted their neighbors when ICE showed up.
LA and Portland helped protesters learn best practices. Chicago taught Charlotte, and North Carolina. Now DHS is in New Orleans and community groups are sharing information. This will happen all across America. The Resistance is growing. Everywhere ICE and the border patrol show up, the community hardens itself against this assault from our own government.
The ACLU and other groups also jumped into action by filing cases challenging the illegal actions of agents so judges could hold evidentiary hearings that exposed the violence and unlawful tactics being used by ICE and border patrol agents. Because so many of these recent detentions were illegal under Illinois law, for example, over 600 detainees are being released from custody. In a raid on a south side apartment building in Chicago where DHS brought in a Blackhawk helicopter to enhance the show film they were making allegedly to arrest Venezuelan gang members, NO ONE was charged with a crime because there were no gang members in that building. The Keystone Cops are in control of DHS. But it isn’t funny. They are traumatizing Americans with their overly aggressive tactics. They are the ones breaking the law. Greg Bovino left Chicago after Judge Sara Ellis berated him for lying to her numerous times.
This mayhem will come back to bite Republicans and Trump. Trump may not care because he will not run again. But House Republicans have to get elected every two years and Senators are up for election every 6 years.
Trump’s approval numbers on immigration and crime are falling and will fall further as Americans see more images of sobbing mothers taken into custody as if they are violent gang bangers, pulled away from their desperate, crying children for the crime of being Hispanic in America. Americans will look to Congress to rein in DHS.
MAGA Republicans will be blamed for this mayhem and cruelty. Republican Party has probably lost Hispanic voters for decades to come.
THE EPSTEIN DEBACLE: MORE BACKLASH
Undiluted Trump has proven himself to be unhinged, demented and chaotic: He destroyed the East Wing of the White House to build himself a huge golden ballroom; he’s openly and joyously corrupt, wining and dining the billionaire class and accepting golden gifts and airplanes from foreign leaders. Trump, who always wanted to be accepted by the New York elites, is finally a member of that aristocracy he yearned to join.
But that alliance is going to be a continuing problem for him, driving his poll numbers down. He won by pretending to be a populist who would be transparent and expose all the secrets of the self-serving “elites” his cult followers wanted exposed. But he went back on that promise by trying to cover up the contents of the Epstein files. Instead, his actions are raising questions about whether he himself is a card carrying member of the “deep state”.
If there was ever any doubt that Trump was featured in the Epstein files, it was settled after Pam Bondi had over 1000 FBI agents comb through the Epstein files to find out if Trump was in them. He was. Big time. Trump was the single person MOST MENTIONED in the files. Over 1,000 times. The fight over releasing the Epstein files split Trump’s base with some Republicans like Margery Taylor Greene fighting for their release and others siding with Trump and MAGA Mike until the bitter end when Trump flipped the script and falsely claimed he was for the release all the time. During this fight, Trump called MTG a “traitor” and said he would back someone to challenge her in a primary. MTG had to hire protection to keep herself and her family safe after that. This falling out may have resulted in her recent decision to resign from Congress in January.
MAYBE THE DEMS PLAYED IT WELL AFTER ALL
The Dems are looking more and more like a winning party. After the election of 2024 there was a lot of handwringing and finger pointing in the Democratic Party. But now it seems like stepping back and letting Trump be Trump in all of his horribleness was the right thing to do. Ten months into this term Trump owns all of the wreckage he has created from chaotic tariffs making consumer goods more expensive and businesses paralyzed about hiring and forecasting growth, new grads unable to get jobs and others in the workforce afraid to leave their jobs for fear they will not be able to land another one, to the dangers of RFK Jr dismantling the CDC and undermining vaccines protocols that have saved millions of lives, to the imminent ruin of Obamacare, to the use of goon squads to demonize Hispanics and so much more.
At first, Americans gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. His poll numbers held relatively steady as Americans waited to see how Trump’s bold actions would affect them personally.
But there have been growing signs that Trump was not doing well. Nation-wide rallies against Trump followed by the massive national No Kings rally on October 18th with 7 million participants were canaries in the coalmine.
Then came the elections on November 4th that showed what the voters are feeling about this administration. Spoiler alert: not happy! The Dems beat out the Republicans by remarkable numbers (some 15 point swings in their favor) even in deep red states and districts. Voters clearly sent a rebuke to Trump, but these numbers also reflect a growing trust in new Democratic leaders who say they will fight to help working Americans have better lives.
Trump has been wrecking the country in almost every way imaginable since the beginning of his term. But the damage is finally being more directly felt by more working Americans.
REPUBLICANS COULD MOVE ON FROM TRUMP
Subservient Republicans are starting to see the handwriting on the wall. Many congressional Republicans realize that if they hope to survive as a viable party, they should disengage themselves from Trump. As Trump goes down, he drags the MAGA Republicans with him because they are forced to be in lock step with him. We are starting to see them break from Trump.
- The Epstein files: All but one Republican on the Hill voted for requiring the Justice Department to release files related to the investigation into late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — despite months of Trump’s cries of “hoax” and fighting the bill.
- Tariff checks: Congressional Republicans shrugged off Trump and top officials’ talks about $2,000 tariff rebate checks, suggesting the money would be better spent shrinking the deficit.
- Filibuster: Senators rebuffed Trump on the filibuster after he repeatedly demanded that they do away with the 60-vote threshold to reopen the government.
- Redistricting: Indiana Republican state lawmakers are defying Trump’s call to move on mid-cycle redistricting.
The good news for America is that Trump has probably lost his bid to be the first American dictator, although we are not out of the woods yet. The Republicans are placing election denialists in power in red states to do whatever they can to cheat to win in 2026. If Trump’s poll numbers continue to fall, Republicans know that Democrats are likely to win back the House and maybe the Senate too with a blue tsunami backlash. If that happens, the Dems have Trump to thank for his terrible, awful, no good first 10 months in office but they also have themselves to thank for being bolder and calling out Trump on the Epstein Files, health care, and mid cycle redistricting.
