We need to call it like it is.
6 EXTREME SUPREME COURT JUSTICES CREATED OPEN SEASON ON GERRYMANDERING in the Callais decision
DEPRIVING MINORITIES OF REPRESENTATION IN CONGRESS AND IN STATE HOUSES GETS SUPREME COURT BLESSING
As I and many others have predicted for many months now, the Supreme Court, led by John Roberts, the Chief Justice, finally did what they’ve itching to do: they blew up section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. That means that state legislatures can engage in partisan gerrymandering and be racially discriminatory about those gerrymanders to their little racist hearts content.
This will result in the loss of representation of Black people living in southern states. Full stop. As Nate Cohn, pollster, says in his NYT piece: “Republican-led states could eliminate most Democratic districts across the South.” It will also narrow the pipeline for Black politicians to make their way to Congress and national political prominence.
Cook Political thinks that in the coming midterms the Callais decision may not result in more than a handful of seats being gerrymandered to add to Republican reps in the House, but by 2028 and 2030 and beyond there will be much more redistricting that MAGAs could engage in that would help them solidify their grip on power in this country.
Forever.
The same partisan gerrymandering to gain seats in the House of Representatives also opens the door to partisan gerrymandering for state legislative seats. Of course, states with Democrats in power will ALSO redraw districts to maximize their representation in the House nationally and in their state legislatures. But these days only one party believes in democracy anymore and it ain’t the MAGA Republicans. There is one party that has become the torch bearer for racists: The MAGA Republican Party. Unfortunately, the Rs currently have the edge.
However, the number of Democratic governors has been increasing in the past decade. Governors matter because they have the power to veto extreme legislation passed by MAGA-led state houses. If the state legislature cannot override the veto of the governor with a 60% supermajority, the governor can usually act as a bulwark against the implementation of significantly harmful legislation–which is what the Wisconsin governor, Tony Evers has often done.
There are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the 50 U.S. states. Governors are not the only ones who act as a bulwark for states against federal government overreach. Secretaries of State and AGs do too. In the next elections Democratic governors, secretaries of state and AGs will be key to maintaining our democracy. They are a crucial bulwark against the extremism Trump and the MAGAs have injected into our country that will not disappear like magic when Trump goes away.
STATE LEGISLATURES WILL BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDTERMS
The composition of state legislatures will be extremely important in the 2026 midterm elections because of the Supreme Court gerrymandering decision.
State legislative races that could result in meaningful power shifts in state houses in the 2026 midterms will become some of the most important and contested races of the midterm elections. The Rs will be trying to keep control of as many state legislative seats as possible especially in the south to hold onto their power in state houses thanks to this new superpower they got from the Supremes to engage in partisan gerrymandering. And Democrats will be trying to flip as many state legislative seats as possible red to blue in the next election.
The future of our democracy will be riding on the outcomes of these midterm elections.
Why? Because the gerrymandering system the Supremes just put on steroids could lock in the future party affiliation of every state in the country this midterm election.
Here is the nightmare scenario.
If Republicans control more governorships and state houses when the dust settles after the midterms, and those state houses redraw their district maps to squelch Black representation (which they will), they could set themselves up for majority control in the House of Representatives for decades to come by cementing the power of white supremacists in their states even if the majority of people in their state don’t want what the MAGAs are imposing. In other words, the southern red states will get even redder and more solidified as white supremacist MAGA states.
Republicans want a country that they, along with the rich elites who control them, can fully dominate. This is not a right or left issue so much as a right and wrong issue. It’s an issue about who has the power- the super-rich tech bros, fossil fuel industrialists and crypto bros or We the multicultural majority.
If America wants to keep a democracy, the Dems will need a blue TSUNAMI in 2026.
Maybe that is coming given the negative partisanship that Trump is generating. But only if enough people vote for Democrats and don’t stay home.
Watch for ads and social media influencers probably being paid by Republicans using dark money to push phony baloney ideas that Democrats are scary and all in on letting immigrant murderers into our country at the border or allowing trans people to commandeer girls’ bathrooms where they operate on children and turn them into trans people or some other nutty made-up scary thing to keep people from voting for Democrats.
THE MOST IMPORTANT MIDTERMS EVER
Negative partisanship around the economy and the war will drive voters to the polls in the midterms which does not bode well for Trump and Trumpism. Here are Trump’s current disapproval numbers:
- 62% his job as president
- 76% cost of living
- 72% inflation
- 66% situation with Iran
- 65% relations with US allies
- 65% the economy
- 61% taxes
- 59% immigration
Those numbers are important because they include Republicans who voted for Trump since there aren’t enough Dems and independents to account for this administration’s shockingly negative numbers.
Even though Trump’s numbers are in the toilet, it doesn’t mean the House and Senate will be easy for Democrats to win. Why? Because MAGA Republicans are already and will continue engaging in massive election subversion and dirty tricks and pretend they aren’t and that the Dems are doing that.
Americans will need to get to the polls in HUGE numbers to overcome the dirty tricks the Republicans are already engaged in: purging voter rolls, limiting drop boxes, making the mail-in ballots arrive late by messing with the postal service, casting doubt on the election system, having ICE and border patrol hang out near polling places and arresting people of color to create fear and more.
On the other hand, if the midterms turn out to be a blue tsunami, not just a nail bitingly close election as usual, the Republicans might be sorry they are aggressively gerrymandering in districts where Trump and the MAGAs are becoming more toxic. They might be spreading the jam too thin.
As Lauren Egan of The Bulwark reports:
GOP in states like Tennessee may be taking a pretty big risk in what is expected to be a wave election year for Democrats. There’s no way to redraw the districts without making some of them more competitive, meaning that it’s not implausible for Democrats to end up picking up an additional Congressional seat or two.
HUNGARIAN SIZED TURNOUT
Nonetheless, if Americans want to definitively tell this administration that they are rejecting autocracy, they will need a Hungarian-sized massive turn out in 2026 – the kind that ousted Orban.
The future of our democracy teeters in the balance. Turn out will help the Dems this time. (In the last election turn out helped Trump and if more people had turned out Trump would have won by larger margins. The tables are turned in the next election.)
If you care, you could make a difference in the outcome. Jump in now to help in whatever way you can: canvass, make calls, volunteer to be a judge of elections, talk with friends and neighbors about the importance of this election and support groups that are working to make sure we have a free and fair election: Democracy Forward, Democracy Defenders Action (Norm Eisen) and Democracy Docket (Marc Elias) fighting in the courts for free and fair elections. Support the DGA Democratic Governors Association, DASS (Democratic Assn of Secretaries of State), and DAGA (Democratic Attorneys General Assn).