Donald Trump is not supposed to be able to run for president when his second term is up, but I predict he will pretend he is following Constitutional law and find a way to work around it to stay in power “legally”.
As Princeton historian Kim Scheppele explained in our Substack Live as part of the Autocracy Series, authoritarian leaders who come to power through democratic means try to keep up the appearance of lawfulness while, in fact, they are using legal mechanisms to dismantle democratic institutions and consolidate their own authority. Kim calls that “Autocratic Legalism”. [Joyce Vance- Civil Discourse]
WHAT THE CONSTITUTION SAYS ABOUT A THIRD TERM:
Amendment Twenty-two to the Constitution was ratified on February 27, 1951. It establishes term limits on those elected president, and outlines an accompanying series of stipulations regarding the eligibility of succession for unfinished presidential terms. The official text says
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.
WHAT DOES TRUMP HAVE UP HIS SLEEVE?
Because Trump wants people to believe he is following the rules even though he is not, it is more likely that he will want the MAGA Republicans to arguably win midterm elections fair and square. Trump will want to have elections but he will rig them so the MAGAs win and in 2028 so that he will win.
States that have Republican led state legislatures are working hard even now to purge voter rolls and make it harder for the electorate that might vote against them to be able to vote (tightening requirements like ID etc to be able to vote) and have their vote count (removal of drop boxes etc). [read Marc Elias Democracy Docket to stay up to date on all the dirty tricks Republicans are working on in their states.]
There are three possible moves I can see Trump making, but there are probably more I just haven’t thought of yet because I don’t think like a power hungry, corrupt, would-be dictator:
1) FIRST: HOW ABOUT A GOON SQUAD TO SUPPRESS THE VOTE?
Trump is creating an army of loyal thugs to conduct a war of fear and suppression on Americans who don’t agree with him. That paramilitary arm is ICE. ICE could help Trump win an election that is unconstitutional (see #3 below) in part by making dissent and voting too scary for many Americans.
ICE has already begun growing its power with a war on immigrants whether or not they have committed crimes other than overstaying their visa or sneaking across the border. Sometimes ICE swoops up citizens “by mistake” but too bad and so what. Trump, Homan, Miller and Noem will try to grow ICE to be more powerful and could eventually move the goal posts back enough that sweeping up not only immigrant citizens but American dissidents who are citizens becomes part of their mission. (This administration is already threatening to expel Momdani, the man who won the New York Democratic mayoral race and is a naturalized American citizen.)
Trump’s army of thugs will also help Trump stay in power by policing battleground polling places with the alleged goal of preventing illegals from voting and the real goal of suppressing the vote in 2026 and 2028. The massive funding of ICE and the very lowest of low bars when it comes to hiring ICE agents has set this first move to stay in power into motion. ICE agents do not have to be smart or good people. They are hired to obey.
As The Bulwark points out- there is a big difference in the characters of the people who can become FBI agents and those who can become ICE agents.
For more than 100 years the FBI has been the only significant federal law enforcement branch because criminal law enforcement happened mostly at the state and local levels. As such, the FBI concerned itself with interstate crimes—wire fraud, organized crime, kidnappings. The feds showed up when crimes crossed state jurisdictions.¹
The FBI has long been the gold standard for law enforcement, worldwide. Why? It starts with the agents. If you want to be an FBI agent, you need a college degree and often a graduate degree, too. Lawyers, accountants, Ph.D.’s with language skills—those are your stereotypical FBI agents.
Then there’s the training. After being accepted to the FBI, new agents go to Quantico where they live, eat, and breathe training for 20 weeks. These aren’t 40-hour work weeks—it’s total immersion. Kind of like Basic Training in the Army. Except that Basic is only a 10-week course and the FBI keeps new agents for double that.
Finally, there’s the management structure. The FBI is nested within the Department of Justice, but it is a separate entity led by an independent director who in important respects operates outside the executive branch’s chain of command. While presidents nominate and the Senate confirms FBI directors, the position is not a normal political appointment—the FBI director is more like the chairman of the Fed. The director’s term is ten years, designed to span administrations, creating continuity and independence.
All of which combines to make the FBI as good as (or better than) any law enforcement organization anywhere in the world. And explains why it will be hard for Trump to corrupt.
He’s trying, obviously. But he’s clearly got a backup plan. In addition to trying to corrupt the FBI, he’s going to supplant the FBI with ICE.[The Bulwark]
TRUMP (and Stephen Miller’s) ICE MEN WHO COMETH
Autocrats often create their own military or security forces to consolidate and maintain power, which are often separate from the traditional armed forces. This allows them to bypass potential challenges from established military structures, and laws that apply to groups such as the FBI or National Guard, and ensures loyalty to him alone, the autocratic leader.
Here is how dictators do it.
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Bypassing Traditional Power Structures:
Autocrats may create parallel security forces, such as a praetorian guard or a party militia, to avoid relying solely on the regular military, which might have its own power base and allegiances.
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Ensuring Loyalty:
These specialized forces are often composed of individuals personally loyal to the autocrat, who have passed loyalty tests and background checks. They are chosen for their reliability rather than military expertise or experience.
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Suppression of Dissent:
These forces can be used to suppress internal opposition and maintain order, often with a focus on loyalty and obedience over professional military skills.
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Examples:
- Historical: Monarchs often relied on praetorian guards for protection and control.
- Modern: Military dictatorships may create separate security forces to maintain political control.
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Challenges to Democratic Norms:
The existence of these forces, particularly when they operate outside the bounds of traditional military oversight, can pose a significant threat to democratic institutions and norms.
TRUMP’S MEGABILL JUST PAVED THE WAY
Trump is building his dictatorship around the loyalists he chose for his cabinet and is also building a goon squad that will mostly be run by Stephen Miller. The mega bill that just passed in Congress massively expanded the power and money behind ICE. Why would ICE and the prison system need to be expanded exponentially for a group of immigrants who are not criminal (only 8% of the deported immigrants had criminal records in the US) especially since immigrants have almost totally stopped showing up at the southern border?
Overall, the law provides $170 billion in new funding for immigration and border enforcement. A substantial $46.5 billion will go toward completing Trump’s beloved border wall. But since border crossings have dropped to very low levels this year, the administration’s more immediate priority will be supercharging ICE’s mass-deportation initiative aimed at immigrants already in the country. The megabill makes ICE the largest federal law-enforcement agency by far and channels $14 billion in new money to local law-enforcement agencies that cooperate with its work [Intelligenser]
The billions of dollars set aside for ICE will fund 10,000 more jobs for ICE agents. It also set aside 45 billion to build detention centers (more accurately called concentration camps). This is ominous. It portends much more than border enforcement. This sure looks like the start of concentration camps for people Trump doesn’t like or is threatened by.
2) SECOND : HOW ABOUT A WAR?
Declaration of war against Greenland and Canada if they resist becoming part of the United States while claiming they started it (which would be a very Putinesque move and would depend on how expansionistic Trump is at heart). If we are at war, Trump could declare martial law and prevent elections from happening.
WOULD TRUMP REALLY DECLARE WAR TO STAY IN POWER?
Maybe this seems far fetched. But Trump continues to insist that Greenland and Canada should be part of the United States and has not let up on this effort. Trump keeps pushing Canada to join the US to get the benefit of a Golden Dome missile defense system and he has falsely claimed Canada wants to become the 51st state to get the benefit of that defense system.
President Donald Trump purported … that Canada was “considering” giving up its statehood in exchange for protection by the proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system at no cost, despite Canadian officials repeatedly stating that the country is not for sale.
“I told Canada, which very much wants to be part of our fabulous Golden Dome System, that it will cost $61 Billion Dollars if they remain a separate, but unequal, Nation, but will cost ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st State,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
If you look at a map and think like Trump thinks, you see how an expansion of the United States up through Canada and Greenland into the Arctic Circle would add to the landmass of the US and create a far more formidable and dominating country, one that he might think would be better positioned to challenge China, for example. This expansionistic idea doesn’t appeal only to Trump, it also appeals to tech bro types who are hot to get their hands on the rare minerals that power new technology and are supposedly plentiful in areas being uncovered by melting ice caps.
If we were at war at the time of the next presidential election Trump could call for martial law. Trump would say Canada and Greenland started the war because they refused to join the US or some other made up malarky. Trump would likely do what he has done in LA- disrupt the system that is in place in a way that gets people angry enough to lash out, then use the lashing out as the predicate for a military response. This would be a very Putinesque move but Trump is an autocrat by nature. Putin may have taught Trump things but Trump could probably teach Putin a few new dictator tricks these days.
Awhile ago I noticed this small bit of information that mainstream media has essentially overlooked but to me seems like it could be a red flag.
The Trump administration is planning to move Greenland from the purview of U.S. European Command to U.S. Northern Command. This move is a “legal” & operational precursor to seizing the island. By placing it under direct US military commanders at NorthCom HQ in Cheyenne Mt complex and OUT of US European command’s authority in Stuttgart it means the USA will no longer recognize it as part of NATO’s Europe’s defense strategy, but places it under the USA continental defense planning just like Alaska. This is a small but necessary step before Trump’s [potential] “annexation” … which can only practically be done by armed invasion and military occupation followed by forced citizenship on the Inuit Greenlanders & expulsion of European Danes.
3) THIRD- AN END RUN AROUND THE CONSTITUTION
Get himself elected as the vice president (to get around the 22nd Amendment that he cannot get elected to the office of President again) with either his son or JD Vance falsely pretending to run for president. Once elected, his son or Vance would simply resign and hand over the presidency to Trump while saying the American people wanted this to happen and FDR had more than two terms so he should be able to have more terms too.
Trump might use this ploy to look like he was coloring between the lines when he was not doing anything of the sort. But that’s how Trump rolls.
WE THE PEOPLE HAVE THE POWER TO STOP HIM. DON’T GO HIDE IN A CLOSET–at least not yet
Americans might not believe that Trump would defy the constitution and rule of law, create a personal militia, use concentration camps to get his way and even declare a war and suspend elections if he is not able to figure out another way to stay in power. But Trump has surprised a lot of people in the past. He doesn’t believe the law applies to him and the Supreme Court agrees with him on that. He is creative. He thinks outside the box. He is all about power and getting for himself. He’s truly the perfect budding autocrat/ dictator/ king. But just because Trump will want to stay in power doesn’t mean he will get to stay in power.
Americans have to stop voting for Republicans if they hope to have a country that even resembles a republic “if you can keep it”. If you vote for any Republican you will not be able to keep it.
What will convince independent voters of that? Trump’s mega bill which was just signed into law will result in some 14 million Americans losing their health care and close thousands of rural hospitals, Trump’s tariffs will raise consumer prices instead of lowering them, and the rich will get richer thanks to this reconciliation bill. Maybe all of that will help more Americans understand that Trump wants to help the billionaires, not working Americans.
What can those of us who see what Trump is up to do about it?
1) Don’t turn off the news- just limit your intake/ talk with everyone you can and help them understand what is happening in our country, namely: Trump is acting like a dictator. He thinks he is above the law. He wants to help the wealthy, not you. Don’t vote for any Republicans until the fever passes. Try to be curious about what they think and believe – encourage them to accept the facts, truthful information, and not shut their minds to a reality that they might not wish were true.
2) Share what you learn on social media with your network but only if you are sure it is accurate information.
3) Join protests near you. Bring signs. Have fun there. Don’t break the law.
4) Help good candidates to win their elections by donating, canvassing, texting, calling. curing ballots. If the Democrats win back the House and, better yet, the Senate also, we have a chance to right this sinking ship by using checks and balances to limit Trump.
5) Tell your elected representatives what you want them to do and how they should vote. Republicans win when the electorate is cynical about change and give up. Don’t give up. Keep pressure on your elected officials. They need to hear from you. If you are in a red state or district your voice is more important than ever.
