A lot of Democrats are worried. They have post traumatic stress disorder from Hillary’s loss in 2016. They fear that even though he is a dumpster fire, Trump could win re-election. And he could. So this is not the time to be complacent. I continue to wonder about what has happened to our country and how Trump could continue to have support from about 40% of Americans. But I have become cautiously optimistic about a blue wave election.
Here is why.
The Real Trump is Being Exposed- He Lied About Being a Success in Biz
When Trump first ran for president many Americans who had watched him on The Apprentice and Fox and Friends believed him to be a successful businessman who would make America “great again”. For certain groups of people that meant a return to the 1950’s or earlier, to barefoot pregnant women who knew their place and blacks who were not uppity, but for other Americans it meant he would surely be able to make us economically successful since he was so successful.
Of course the reality was that Trump was very successful at portraying himself as successful, but he was an utter failure in the business world. He said he was successful over and over again. And the Apprentice helped him hone that image. But he was lying. The truth was that he was overly optimistic and unrealistic as a businessman. He bought one casino and then bought more casinos in the same geographical area that would compete against each other. He used his father’s approach to real estate, applying it to the casino business but it was not a smart strategy since casinos are in competition with each other if they are geographically close. In short, he squandered the money he got from his father and had to be bailed out by his father multiple times. That information is finally out because the NYT obtained over 2 decades of his taxes. Trump was, in reality, a big loser.
The Real Trump is Being Exposed and He is a Rotten Guy
We have been learning a whole lot about the real behind-the-scenes Trump, that he didn’t want us to know about. We have learned how Trump talks about the military (losers and suckers). We have learned he cares only about himself- although we already knew that (Mary Trump’s book). We have heard in the Woodward tapes Trump himself say that he knew the virus was airborne, dangerous, a “killer”, a “plague” and that kids could get it and then we have been reminded of Trump’s own statements, juxtaposed, telling Americans a fairytale- the pandemic would go away magically, nothing to worry about, under control. (Those taped conversations of Trump are part of Woodward’s book). Trump is still saying that we are “turning the corner” on this virus as a third wave is hitting this country and cases are spiking.
We have heard about Trump behind the scenes giving everyone who tries to work with him a very hard time because anyone who thinks or acts independently risks being fired and shamed by Trump. (Michael Schmidt’s book). We have seen his awful behavior in especially the first debate. And we have heard from Olivia Troye, who was in meeting after meeting with Trump as part of Pence’s Homeland Security team dealing with the pandemic. She saw how Trump acted in real time. She exposed the real Trump to us once again: his lies about the pandemic so as not to rattle the stock market, and the distaste he has for his adoring supporters. Here is what she has to say:
Olivia Troye worked as Homeland Security, counterterrorism and coronavirus adviser for Mike Pence for two years. She said that by mid-February the White House knew COVID-19 would become a pandemic.
In an ad by Republican Voters against Trump, Troye said Trump remarked in a coronavirus task force meeting: “Maybe this COVID thing is a good thing. I don’t like shaking hands with people. I don’t have to shake hands with these disgusting people.”
“I have been a Republican my entire life,” she said. “I am voting for Joe Biden because I truly believe we are at a time of constitutional crisis. At this point it’s country over party.”
“The truth is he doesn’t actually care about anyone else but himself,” she said, adding that Trump was most concerned about tanking the economy in an election year. (Fox News)
Olivia has been attacked by Trump and his cult base because she was critical of Trump. When history tells the story of what happened in this country when Donald Trump tried to destroy our democracy and install himself as an authoritarian dictator, Olivia Troye will be one of the heroes our grandchildren will learn about. She spoke up. She had a voice. She told the truth. There are not many profiles in courage among Republicans on Capitol Hill these days. John McCain was the last clear voice of opposition.
It’s crickets out there in GOP land now. But silence can speak volumes by its absence. Republicans are not speaking up about Trump’s great character. That silence speaks louder than words.
Follow the Money, It’s Going to the Biden/Harris Campaign
You can often tell a lot about how a race is going by how the big money donors are allocating their funds. Trump’s re-election campaign is hurting for money these days. Strapped for cash and unable to compete with the Biden campaign in the final stretch of this race. The big Republican donor money is flowing freely to help embattled Senate Republicans who made the mistake of closely aligning themselves with Trump and who are now struggling in polls against their Democratic opponents in battleground states. Those states include Maine, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Other states that should have been gimmies for Trump are up for grabs: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Iowa, South Carolina, and even Texas might be in play.
When a state that went for Trump by, say, 2 pts has moved over to Biden and given him a 9 point lead, that means there has been a movement by mostly Independent voters of 11 points- away from Trump, which, when you think about it, is a HUGE shift. Some of the shifts we are seeing away from Trump to Biden/Harris are even bigger than that.
Independents decide elections. About 30% of our electorate is Republican (although the GOP is losing more members because of Trump) and about 30% are Dems but about 40% are Independents. Independent voters are the ones who decide elections. It looks like they are mainly breaking for Biden. They see him as likeable and they prefer him to Trump when it comes to empathy, and caring about “people like me”. The Drudge Report says that the Trump campaign thinks he may lose Florida. If that happens, Trump would have to hope that the Rust Belt States will help him eke out another win like 2016. But those states are also lining up for Biden.
The word on the street (from political strategists who know more than I do) is that if Trump loses the election based on the count that is tallied on November 3rd, he will be forced to concede. Maybe that’s a pipe dream. But maybe someone knows something about Trump since in the past that has been his MO. He would send in the lawyers to fight every lawsuit he has had but he would always concede in the end and and make a deal. Trump is someone who surrenders when the going gets tough. He surrendered to the pandemic, for example. He pretended it doesn’t exist. Look how that came out.
And when it comes to following the money to learn the will of the voters, during the first debate as Trump was bullying Biden and interrupting both him and Chris Wallace, Biden donations were pouring in. Between 9 and 11 pm on debate night Biden amassed 8 million bucks.
Biden is not Hillary
Hillary was not well liked by many people because she was seen as arrogant. Our country is still misogynistic. Biden could say, “Shut up, man” to Trump during the debate, but Hillary would have been severely criticized for saying the same thing in her debate with Trump. The Biden campaign is even making a T-shirt with “Shut up, man” written across it. Hillary could not have done that. The Russians, Republicans, Trump and others were able to brand Hillary in a very negative way that stuck partly because she had some shady things in her past. Biden was thoroughly vetted by the Obama campaign when he was chosen for vice president. If there was anything at all shady in his past, he would not have been chosen as Obama’s running mate.
Trump has been unable to brand Biden the same way he did Hillary. Nothing is sticking because people know Biden is squeaky clean. Even in the debate Trump didn’t come up with one of his nasty names for Biden. And the Biden campaign has been smart about their narratives and messaging. They are currently helping voters see Biden as Mr. Scranton, PA. and casting Trump as Mr. Park Avenue who only cares about the stock market and success of the 1%. Good messaging that is consistent with the reality we have all seen in the past four years.
Trump has a Record Now and It Sucks
In 2016 Trump could portray himself and use branding and messaging to appeal to Americans. Now he has a track record. He had planned to run on a great economy. The pandemic destroyed that. More recently Trump tried to run on law and order and fearmongering to get the suburban woman vote. But suburban women are rejecting that message. They see Biden as the better bet on law and order. The Trump campaign has pulled all the law and order ads even though Trump still talks about it in his rallies. 80% of Americans say the country is going in the wrong direction. Trump’s record sucks. And he is a big fat liar. Americans don’t like that.
If the Pandemic is Front and Center as Americans Go to the Polls, Biden Wins, Trump Loses
Trump has done a horrible job of protecting us from the pandemic, and he lied about it. We have 4% of the population and 20% of all the cases globally. 226,000 Americans have died on Trump’s watch so far. Other countries including China are almost back to normal life. We are not. Biden is doing a good job of reminding Americans that Trump lied to us about what he knew which was “close to criminal”.
We also know for a fact now with all these revelations that he only cares about being re-elected not about saving anybody’s life. That is why Trump has been spoon feeding us happy talk. But it’s hard to believe happy talk when your life has been messed up because of Covid. Kids aren’t in school, people are working remotely in isolation or in overcrowded situations, people have lost their jobs, people are about to lose their homes if they don’t get help, grandma, grandpa or some uncle or cousin or celebrity or friend has died from Covid. The impeachment was not personal. Ukrainegate was not personal. Covid is personal.
Now that Trump himself has gotten Covid, voters are more likely to make the connection that Trump was not telling the truth when he said the virus is behind us. Pence’s inner circle now has an outbreak. Pence was supposed to be leading the team to fight the coronavirus. As Biden has said if Trump (and Pence) can’t protect themselves from the virus how can they protect us? More people are understanding that the economy will not come back until and unless the pandemic is under control. If the voters realize that it will be the end of Trump’s last viable message – his claim he is better on the economy. He is not.
30% of the Voters Still Wanted Nixon to Stay On
And yet there will still be a whole lot of people who are going to vote for him because he is the leader of their political tribe and the cult of personality to which they belong. Tribal politics will cause the races to tighten in most states as we get closer to November 3rd. However, as we get into early voting, which has already started in many places, a lot of Americans have gotten the message that they need to vote early and in person to be sure their vote is counted. This promises to be an election with extraordinarily high turn out despite the pandemic and because of the pandemic but mostly because it is a referendum on Trump himself.
A majority of Americans are ready to dump Trump. In the end what will bring him down may be as simple as this: Trump lied. We died.
But even though it seems like Trump is a dumpster fire. NO ONE SHOULD BE COMPLACENT. This is not over until its over. And every single vote must be counted. Jump in and help the Biden/Harris campaign by volunteering to call and text voters to get out the vote! Every vote matters!! Go to https://joebiden.com/call/